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To: paul ross who wrote (8219)	3/11/1998 2:50:00 AM
From: Abner Hosmer	Respond to of 116814

vicious circles..... Thais more worried about Malaysia than Indonesia biz.yahoo.com Malaysia wants IMF to speed Indonesia loan - Anwar biz.yahoo.com >>''Yesterday I have faxed an urgent message to IMF urging them to take into consideration the problems and complexities in Indonesia, and the contagion effect on the region,'' Anwar told reporters.<< FOCUS-Japan to watch Indonesia's IMF reform moves biz.yahoo.com Chaos looms if IMF/Indonesia tiff ends in divorce biz.yahoo.com >>''The increasingly anti-IMF rhetoric has increased the risk of Indonesia going it alone and abandoning the IMF programme altogether,'' said strategist Thio Chin Loo... ..The immediate impact of such a move would be to halt all further international aid and debt negotiations and since Indonesia is close to bankrupt a general debt moratorium would have to be declared... ..Suharto would almost certainly implement a currency board or other fixed exchange rate system... ...The huge danger with a currency board is that businesses and individuals would scramble to get their cash off-shore at a better rate and the whole fixed currency system could well collapse if the fiscal flood-gates opened... ..The third major impact would be a likely collapse of the banking sector, although analysts pointed out that many of the 200-odd banks left in Indonesia were in a pretty perilous situation and appeared to be going under anyway... ..Without IMF help Indonesia will have to seriously start looking for funding from elsewhere, but it is extremely hard to see where the money would come from. As analysts pointed out, if central banks are lenders of last resort within their own countries, the IMF is lender of last resort to central banks.<<