To: fut_trade who wrote (8257 ) 3/11/1998 4:05:00 AM From: Michael Collings Respond to of 27307
Bhealy, yes my book value example is absurd, but book value does play a roll in valuing a company. Using future earnings .... just how many years in the future should we go.... We're already out five years should we include years 6,7, and 8? Peter, I guess I don't see 100% earnings growth per quarter. Last quarter included probably 750 thousand in four11 earnings with the expenses charged off as non recurring. 1 million per quarter is still interest income from their money market. No one I know of is forecasting earnings growth of 100% per quarter. I have seen analysts forecasting 80% a year and if you start out with 1998 with 35 cents you still have a price that is already trading where it should be 4 or 5 years from now. I ask again "how many years in the future do you factor in today's price?" Use to be with most stocks it was 1 year to 18 months. Why? Because no one knows what can happen, nor can they guess what might happen further in the future. That's why stocks like these ALWAYS go back to more realistic levels eventually. I know, "this time might be different." But you know what Peter? If you really want to own a company, the day to day price action shouldn't even phase you. I wouldn't sell my Pfizer even though it, by all historical standards, is in the stratosphere. When the market corrects, I am sure it will go down with everything else, but I'll still keep holding on like I always do. Because in the very long run I know that it would regain everything and then some and my time horizon on it is indefinite. So I really do give you credit for hanging on in the face of all these bears!