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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LK2 who wrote (2778)	3/11/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

It is interesting to read this report. It states some great fears very well. It may also leave some things unsaid. I see huge inventories, but all drives are not created equal. I wonder if how the glut falls on wanted drives vs unwanted. I'm sure there must be niche drives which are in demand and profitable. I wonder if there is a way to see what company is holding the most out dated inventory, which may have to be written off? Also discussed is the issue of manufacturing capacity. At what point will we see factories closed because they are old and not effecient enough? Seagate closed operations in Ireland. That was pretty aggressive. I haven't seen any other announcements of plant closings. Perhaps Stitch could give us an estimate of who runs the most effecient factories? Regards, Mark Isn't this the point when you take low end slipping technology to the third world?

To: LK2 who wrote (2778)	3/11/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Re: TrendFocus This is good news! I said before, in my original paper on cycles, that shitty forecasting is what (in part) causes booms and busts in certain industries. A gloomy forecast like this is just what the doctor ordered. All the elements are falling into place so sweetly. 1. Grim forecasts 2. => reduction in build plans. 3. => slowdown in supply curve expansion 4. Demand stimulators: Win98, DVD, Broadband 5. => Demand curve shifts hitting just as capacity growth is choked off 6. => The next HDD boom. We'll probably see a nice DRAM boom to go with it, because conditions are being replicated in that sector, which has gone through an even worse bust than HDD. It's almost time to buy. <G> God bless, PX w3.to