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To: Robert F. Newton who wrote (12701)	3/12/1998 9:54:00 PM
From: Chuck. Edwards	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

Robert, there is a Cytyc board on SI that is worth visiting. Not very active, but it's got some info. They basically have a system that sorta washes the sample clean of mucus, blood, etc and makes it easier to see the cells. The company was on a roll, with a series of independent, peer-reviewed studies that found the system increased cancer detection rates and reduced the number of poor samples that required women to return to the doctor for another smear. The success or failure of the product depends on the willingness of insurance companies to reimburse for the test, because it is significantly more expensive, like twice the cost of an ordinary Pap smear. But numerous insurance companies, including many state Blue Cross/Blue Shields, were starting coverage. Then, BOOM! About three weeks ago, an economist with the Blue Cross/Blue Shield Technology Evaluation Center (TEC) published a study (or rather, TEC issued a press release on the study, because they weren't prepared to release the study itself yet, the bozos) that said that Cytyc's ThinPrep overall didn't increase longevity that much and women should be content with regular Pap smears. (They said the same for two other new tests.) It is my understanding that TEC is a subscription service for the Blues, not some kind of regulatory or oversight body. I haven't seen the details of the TEC report, but it sounds like the standard blah-blah that we should stop researching cancer, AIDS, etc, because we would more efficiently use our money on child immunizations and rehydration salts in the third-world. Probably correct, but also irrelevant, since most of us want to increase our OWN health, and don't quite regard a net increase in world longevity as a proper trade-off for our own very personal mortality. We want good cancer detection tests even if they aren't proven to vastly increase longevity overall. If I'm getting tested for cancer, I want the test to be good. Anyway, that's the reason for the gap down. The stock won't recover, in my opinion, until another big insurance group reimburses for the test, notwithstanding the TEC report. (Nice action today, though.) Another long-term issue - there are several new screening devices out there competing for Pap smear money. Most of them seem to involve mechanical screening of conventional Pap smears to reduce costs rather than improving the Pap smear sample itself, but it is perceived that all of these systems are competing for Pap smear money. A huge caveat: This is all from memory. As I noted, I haven't seen the TEC study and am operating from headlines and press reports. Cytyc's ThinPrep test may not be EXACTLY twice the cost of a regular Pap smear, this is all big sloppy estimates. So caveat lector and feel free to correct me, anyone with better info. Cheers Chuck Edwards