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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LK2 who wrote (7493)	3/11/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: RFF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Seen a few large blocks go by after the close.....about 200,000 shares in all......traded at around $21 1/4-3/8..... That was a pretty quick retreat at the end of the day. Guess somebody that's worried used the rally as a selling opportunity. HP came out and said there was a glut of PCs on the market ...don't know if its overproduction (my guess) or fall off in demand.....seen articles that take both sides of the demand issue.

To: LK2 who wrote (7493)	3/11/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Larry, An answer to your question & a sobering forecast. You asked how long the DD sector would be faced with boom or bust cycles. I think it will be so for long into the future. Its the nature of high tech in fact. The rate of change in high tech contributes to its cyclicity and forces the investor to "stay in tune" constantly. The upside is the potential for great rewards, whether you are a short or long player. This isn't like squirreling away IBM stock back in the 1950's anymore. Companies that don't regularly "eat their own young" to introduce new technologies and products get deposed by new companies that are eager to take their place. IMO its a fact of high tech investing. Thank goodness we have these threads and other resources for research and news. Here in SE Asia there isn't anything comparable for information. That is why I would never invest in technology companies in Asia. Not that there aren't opportunitys but there isn't enough info to satisfy my confidence levels. More transparency is required. Before anyone gets convinced we have seen the lows perhaps the article copied below is timely for you. You may also want to read a post I made on the DD Sector thread at: Message 3679067 IMO we have a ways to go before the best buying time. I favor Quantum in a recovery scenario, when it happens, but at prices below this point. Best, Stitch Slow 10% growth in disk drive shipments seen US research firm advises drive makers to cut build plans drastically by 15-20% By Jennifer Lien GROWTH in hard disk drive shipments is likely to slow to 10 per cent this year -- easily the industry's weakest performance in years, an industry research firm said on Monday. Silicon Valley-based TrendFocus Inc's latest forecast, made after last week's profit warnings by Intel Corp and Compaq Computer, compares with its earlier 1998 forecast of about 13 per cent growth in disk drive unit shipments. Other industry researchers have predicted between 18 and 20 per cent unit growth. Last year, some 130 million disk drives were shipped, a 23 per cent jump from 1996. A 10 per cent rise in unit shipments would equal about 13 or 14 million more units shipped in 1998, and half of this "should come from adjusting inventory to normal levels", the firm said. But TrendFocus estimates that existing disk drive manufacturing capacity exceeds current demand by between 35 and 50 per cent, especially at top three makers Seagate, Quantum and Western Digital. Production plans also continue to be some 25 million units, or 18 per cent, more than expected 1998 demand. While the top three are struggling with overcapacity, other disk drive companies such as Maxtor, Fujitsu and IBM have been gaining market share. These upcoming players continue to boost production plans, thus adding to the capacity glut.Worsening the situation are Intel and Compaq's Q1 profit warnings last week, which indicate slower-than-expected Q1 PC sales, damaging prospects for a first-half disk drive industry recovery. The firm estimates that distribution channel inventories of disk drives, including disk drives within finished PCs, at over 10 weeks for desktop drives, and "over one full quarter" for server drives. With slower growth in storage demand, the use of fewer components in each disk drive, and the Asian economic crisis sapping PC buying power, the industry is "mired in arguably the worst market adjustment in more than 10 years", said TrendFocus. The firm advises disk drive makers to dramatically cut build plans by 15 to 20 per cent. And it reckons that at least five disk drive makers could "make profound changes in their respective cost structures by downsizing, closing factories, streamlining operations, and slowingincremental investment".