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To: Papillon who wrote (12705)	3/11/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--I am scratching my head over this myself (KLAC). I have a friend that works for KLAC and he is seeing equipment installed and purchased on a routine basis. He is in Applications Support and new to that area since he is a discarded Fort Collins Super-Engineer. The only thing we can come up with is a slight nuisance from AMAT and some genuine concern over Thermawave's capabilities in certain applications. Other than that he feels they are solid and he is content in playing KLAC for 3-4 point swings in price. He is buying now and figures to exit at $43 and above. I would like to say that the market is very inefficient now and that a great deal of volatility is the order of the day. I am getting my head out of the short term perturbations and trying to focus on the long term prospective. This Asian Crisis has not run its course, as demonstrated by Jeff's 2 Korean articles he shared with us. One one hand the "4 generation" technology for DRAMs forces the capital equipment appropriations issue for all the players in order to remain competitive. Then you read about the negative cash flow, halting on some expansions, soliciting capital infusion from the likes of INTC, retrofitting memory lines to do both memory and logic, and lower capital spending forecasts. Temper this with some dangerous thoughts by the equipment sector to help the Asians via financial institutions to keep their spending and expansions on plan. This means making deals as a third party in this transaction, meaning taking some of the risk or discounting the equipment. Couple this with the attempts to convince Congress to invoke sanctions against Korean manufacturers for dumping practices and you have a very uncertain environment. This level of uncertainty creates massive volatility. when you make your play, best thing to do is to hold your cards until you have a winning hand instead of jumping around from one reversal into another. I like the expression someone used that states a failed daytrade becomes a longer term investment. Andrew