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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (17502)	3/11/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: SeanS	Respond to of 70976

Hi, Thanks for the excellent post! Reading the comments on these SI threads it is obvious that a lot of investors forget that the market is always looking at least 6 months into the future. The past, or even the present has very little significance when evaluating potential investments. After a little more bad news to shake out the nervous, it should be time to pounce on this puppy with both feet. Good Luck, Sean

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (17502)	3/11/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Margarita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OFF TOPIC Hi Tito: I thought the SI was free it looks like they charge now I did not see this before any comments?. techstocks.com

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (17502)	3/12/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: William Nelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito, I think this is a very interesting line of thought. No doubt there are whole books on buying cyclic stocks, but anway amateurs can still ponder it.... One thing I've failed to understand is, why doesn't the market smooth out the cycles? I mean, if everyone KNOWS the good times are coming back, why sell?? The only reason is you think someone else might be selling. A fund manager probably won't want to risk having a cyclic stock fall on him when its earnings are bottoming, because customers will think he's an idiot. So they get out of it and hence it falls. Anyway, it's strange to apparently have money handed to you on a plate, just for having a slightly longer horizon. I have to assume that a strategy of buying cyclicals during troughs doesn't beat the street...I don't have experience to know...

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (17502)	3/12/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito,>When many of us are waiting to buy in the 20s or 10s, the others of us are buying in the 30s in anticipation of the run-up to 60 and the 100s later (a 10 point decline from 30 isviewed as an unexpected bonus to take by buying more)...Then when, in the 100s, many of us (including myself) are looking ahead for further gains (and the Earnings arrows are Up)---that's the time to be selling...History may not exactly repeat itself but it can help us make a good guess of the future...< You are right on! It appears that your statement is just what is happening. We have to ask ourself, "What is the upside/downside of buying or selling at this point vrs the risk of not buying or selling at this specific point?" Your above insight in my opinion is very appropriate. Since I am in 98% with a tremendeous gain from when I purchased AMAT in Oct. 1996 in addition to being even margined at $16 rate there is not much risk for me to wait. I only have $5500 available. Tito, the hardest part for us in the future is going to be the time to sell in this cycle. I will be in the 20% tax bracket at that time. I am going to let the BP 10week moving average an Sector charts have the greatest weight in my decision-making process. Naturally, our discussions will also have some weight.:) Just my opinion. Paul V.