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To: JRH who wrote (12897)	3/11/1998 4:48:00 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

...continued Examples for Rule 1: case I: june 96 swings between 38 (top) and 32 bottom: 38-32 = 6 / 36 ~ 16% case II: jan /feb 97 50/42 : 8/46 ~ 17% Note that I took peaks here, the 95% corridor is narrower (the said 14%) Examples for Rule 2: Case I: examples above: 46/36 = 1.28 (squared to get a year out of 6 months) = 1.63 case II: 62 today/ 50 end of June = 1.53 Examples for the Rule 3: Falling-down-the-staircase I: 33% Q4 95 (or was it more? I dont have data) Falling-down-the-staircase (FDTS) II: 36% Q1 97 (God, was that painful...) The result of the FDTS II was a displaced corridor, that runs (still) parallel to the original 96 bull run. At the moment we are bumping our heads on the top level. Based on these rules here's my predictions for start of Q1 Y 2000: "Happy faces": the present corridor stays intact next two years. The target price in the center of the corridor will be at 140, within the band of 145.14 = 20 $ "Nothing can stop us now": the two separate corridors (96 and 97) are combined to get to a) lower target price of 130 and b) wider interval of 50$ "Rule III is baaack*": Market corrects in Q2 98 by 33%. Accordingly the target Y2K price is one third lower at "sad faces" 90+-20$ So, what's the deal? Well, I bought some 99 leaps start of the week (additional to what I am holding on since my puberty). Just to indicate that if this is hot air, then there's hot-air baloon hanging on to it, and I am in it. Janko