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To: FJB who wrote (1492)3/11/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: abcde_98  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2946
 
"Fixing" positions in portfolio -- use options ie. hold onto stock and use options which I'm doing.

Also, thanks for the post from LB (what is LB?) about EPS estimates and price target ($23 down from $28). Do NOT look at targets - study done a year ago looked at thousands of analysts' targets of thouands of co's and they've been within +- 5% only 1/170 times over 10 quarter period - I'll look for the article to explain better.

Did you know analysts are permitted to make revisions to their estimates up to 2 weeks prior to earnings announcements? This was factored into the study and still analysts were correct a very small part of the time.

My guestimate at this point is they may have overdone their reductions on SVG. If not, I have no faith in the analysts looking at SVG.



To: FJB who wrote (1492)3/11/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: Volsi Mimir  Respond to of 2946
 
All: Katherine Derbyshire (who authored the DPI/UT/ISI article) is on General Lithography techstocks.com
come on over and talk

eddyb



To: FJB who wrote (1492)3/11/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: Yakov Lurye  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2946
 
Bob, I've decided to keep my position for the time being. I do not see the stock recovering fast - analysts were apparently sceptical during the last CC and will be even more cautious now - but I do not see many bargains in the stock market at the moment, and the downside risk from these levels seems to be limited. If I recall correctly, SVGI stock went down by $3 after the last earnings were announced because of reduced bookings, so it is being punished second time around for the same bad news.

I will be looking very carefully at two items in the next CC/10-Q - outlook for new bookings (as compared with competition results for the same period), and how much money are they spending on capacity expansion. Until then, I am reluctantly prepared to procrastinate.

Whatever the management style, expansion plans may reflect a strategic neccessity - soon there may not be enough room for four players in this field.

Another possible scenario to consider is an acquisition by AMAT. SVGI has good technology, very valuable asset in Tinsley, reasonable amount of cash on hand and important connections in the industry that for now provide a fairly stable (albeit limited) revenue stream. If AMAT is serious about getting into lithography, SVGI seems to be a good candidate (don't know much about ISI?). Of course, AMAT may also opt to wait for SVGI to use cash on capacity expansion and try to buy it cheaper later...

Having said all this, my main (although completely unscientific) reason for staying long is that I'd just sold out of SVGI at 27 7/16 and used the proceeds to buy back more shares at 25. Looks like I'd jumped the gun by a couple of days and I really hate it...

Good luck,

Y.