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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joss who wrote (2329)	3/11/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

No trigger. When the bulls run out of cash, the bull market ends. This is a ponzi scheme now. -Vi

To: Joss who wrote (2329)	3/11/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

Joss, see Wm. Fleckenstein's comments about the Japanese mkt going down in 1989 due to exhaustion ( prior issue to 3/11) stocksite.com At times i feel that nothing will bring this mkt down then I remind myself that history repeats or at least it rhymes. Mike

To: Joss who wrote (2329)	3/12/1998 1:05:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

Hi Joss, the 29' market was triggered by some match company going out of business. It doesn't take much when you get to such tremendous overvaluation. Mike Drakulich described the market like a boxer who has been hit hard with body blows and is staggering around, then leaps up crazily wide open, then gets way-laid buy a flimpsy punch by a tired opponent. If you've watched the airlines, drugs, internets, computers all have blow-off phases, one of the biggies is left out - THE DOW! The market will end with a blow-off spike run in the Dow in which a 5-10% move will happen in a very short time frame 1-2 weeks. For those who have been hit in the head with tekgk's, Arik's and others fundamentals that describe this market fundamentally riskier than 29' and still don't believe, and have bought the 'popular story' that this is some kind of new era baloney. In 29' people loved their new fangled gadgets that were produced in highly productive factories and was bought on credit and ALL thought that this new technology would bring mankind to new heights. In 29' Cigars and Martini Bars were in and everybody rushed down to the body piercing and tattoo parlors that were the rage of the day. In the 20's they had Al Capone and Prohibition, now we have gangsta rap, drug lords, and the Prohibition has jumped a runge on the moral decay list to DRUGS. In 29' stocks moved 50 - 800% in short time frames. Oracle recently made a 50% move in about a 2-3 week, and Yahoo has done 800% in a year. In 29' stocks were bid up in the face of a troubled agricultural industry which was a dominant industry in America. In the 90's stocks have been bid up in the face of a third of the world economy in the tank. In 29' captains of industry were more important than Presidents, Senators or Congressmen (read Jumpers recent post to me) In 1929' we were the worlds greatest lending nation - A World Power. In 1998 we are the greatest borrowing nation, fueling our avarice for gadgets, cubans, and 4WD leather upholstered vehicles on 50,000 limit credit cards, while the govt. sells it's soul in treasuries bills or backdoor deals to China, Japan and whoever is ready to pony up to the bar with hard cash in trade for concessions on moral principles this country was founded on and has fought wars on foreign soil and spilled the blood of many to uphold. The govt. just says toss me a few billion and we will look the other way. So America, the great moral and spiritual leader of the world is in decay . . . Rome is burning and Caesar is having a drink with Monica. The Titanic is going down and Kings gentlemen have their lifeboats bought and paid for, while the Irish are drowning in the boiler room. It's a house of cards folks. The question of when the market will peak is fun to play, but the bigger question is what will happen in the months and years in the aftermath. My suggestion, pray deeply about it, I will be. bobby