Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (17526)	3/13/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Boy, the Even Year/Odd Year correlation on that Per Cent Change chart is so consistent, it's downright scary!

To: Gottfried who wrote (17526)	3/14/1998 12:26:00 AM
From: BigShoulders	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Your charts with AMAT price estimates and other data are very interesting. A few comments for discussion: 1) If I thought the stock would be at 76 (survey average) at yearend 1999, I would sell the house, the car, and maybe even the golf clubs and buy all the shares I could. (OK, not the golf clubs) I don't think I would be waiting for the stock to go down a couple points before I bought so my gain would be 160% instead of 150%. Makes me think there are some doubters that didn't get there numbers into the survey. 2)The semi equipment B to B ratio seems to trend lower through the middle of the year and turn up at the end of the year. Is this a normal phenomenon related to the users business cycle, or is this coincidence? 3) The B to B ratio for 1998 started out very poor compared to previous years. News about current orders desn't sound good, so it doesn't seem like B to B will be improving soon. Is there a relationship between the B to B ratio and the stock price history? 4) A previous post noted that AMAT has done much better in odd years than in even years. Is their some expalnation in the semi equipment business cycle or is this coincidence? Keep the info. coming, it provides food for thought. From what I've read in this thread and elsewhere, it looks like AMAT is THE PREMIER semi equipment company and one of the best ways to invest in the sector. Could someone explain what it is they sell that the manufacturers have to have and what it is that keeps them on top? Regards BigShoulders