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Biotech / Medical : Alseres Pharmaceuticals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMarcus who wrote (552)	3/12/1998 8:02:00 AM
From: Dr. John M. de Castro	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 975

I agree overall that the market is discounting BLSI's remarkable pipeline. There is a great deal of value here. But, if you look across the biotech market you see the same story repeated. The market is simply not valuing science. Look at ARIA for a case in point. I don't agree that the filing of the Therafectin NDA will cause the stock to soar. From the markets response to the release of the new data analysis and the intention to file, I have to conclude that Therafectin is being written off by the market. Remember that there is a long history with Therafectin and a lot of money has been lost on it. This occurred not just recently with the report of the Phase III results by BLSI, but previously with Greenwich, which basically went out of business because of it. The big players have long memories and they don't trust BLSI or the Therafectin story. The Therafectin NDA will be filled with meta-analyses and post hoc analyses of the trial data. Traditionally the FDA has not been accepting of such procedures. It would be an unusual move for the FDA to approve a drug under such conditions. The safety profile of therafectin is such that it might happen. There is little harm to be done. But, it would be very unusual for them to do it. So, IMHO the market is expecting that the NDA will go nowhere. If BLSI should get Therafectin approved, then I'd expect the stock price to soar, but not before. There is great value in BLSI. I particularly like Troponin. Eventually news from these programs will drive the stock. I look on BLSI as an excellent long-term play where the richness of the pipeline will eventually drive the stock up. But, I view BLSI short term as a crapshoot. John de C