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Technology Stocks : General Lithography -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SemiBull who wrote (889)	3/11/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: Volsi Mimir	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1305

SemiBull Semiconductor Online news.semiconductoronline.com eddyb

To: SemiBull who wrote (889)	3/11/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 1305

Semibull, while my opinion may not have the weight of many experts on this thread (lacking many of their credentials by being just a high-tech oriented student of business instead of a renowned columnist, senior lithographer or anything like this), my opionion on SVGI is as follows: STRATEGIC OUTLOOK Plus: The only step-and-scan producer (now ASMLF also has a scanning product) Minus: limited production capacity. However they planned to increase-yearly output 4-5 fold over the next 4 years. This should put them on top of CANON, pretty much in line with ASMLF which also could surpass CANON in the industry. Current Price to sales ratio is 1.22 (for TTM - trailing 12 months). Implicit PSR ratio (current period annualized) of below 1. Now imagine that: output goes up 5fold and the ERP of a scanner just stays the same and/or increases because the new Model Microscan IV will be on its way. This means: stock price could accelerate nicely. Company issued an earnings warning to my knowledge but any investment in this dynamic industry should be aimed at a yearly horizon - unless You wouldn't do trading a stock of course. I would also say that they basically selling DUV and DUV-ready (Microscan II+) product should not be hurt by AFC and the fallout that much. I regard this as an opportunity and could even think about buying below $20.. regards CROSSY

To: SemiBull who wrote (889)	3/12/1998 9:03:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1305

>>By the way, do you (and/or the thread for that matter) have a particular view on SVGI's latest Microscan over the short and long term? << Short term, they do not seem to be much of a player in i-line or 248nm exposure tools. Nikon, ASML, and Canon seem to own most of that segment. (Although Canon has made some serious missteps and could be vulnerable. Witness their drop from #2 to #3--although they're contesting the numbers on that one.) Long term, they seem to have a good handle on the technical issues for 193 nm, and their work with Lincoln Labs will help them a lot. Their alliance with NASA will help a lot in EUV development, the (possible) next generation beyond 193 nm. Problem is that those technologies will cost huge amounts of money. It's not a matter of just gritting one's teeth until the market catches up with their technology--to play in those markets, companies will need either a significant revenue stream or significant outside research funding. Technically, I'd say they've got a shot. Financially, I'm not qualified to comment. Katherine