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Non-Tech : Sunglass Hut RAYS- Will it ever breakout? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bilow who wrote (817)3/11/1998 8:34:00 PM
From: Street Walker  Respond to of 971
 
This stock is a real DOG!

You're quick TA is the general opinion of anyone researching the
company.

Brokerage firms project trading at $12 in one year. This will obviously be on hype, rather than great financials.

For the obvious reasons, I'm going to SHORT this dog when it
tops tomorrow. Lots of profit takers will be coming out of the
woodwork now that earnings are out.

They were expecting a 4 cent loss. I think they only had a 3 cent
loss. Beating the street by 1 cent isn't that big a deal.

Only hype will take it higher. Remember these brokerage upgrades
are for the LONG TERM, not short term.

If I had been long this stock at lower levels, now is the time
I would take profits with a smile and move the money to a better stock (itvu), or better yet, SELL RAYS SHORT with your profits!

If you are selling to take profits, you realize that the stock
has little hope of going higher in the near term, and more than likely going to fall. So if you believe this, put your money with your beliefs! Take a profit and then short.

If one personally likes RAYS, then sell for the profit, let it fall
back to $8.00 over the next few months, and after the general market correction, and then load up for next earnings. Just my thoughts.

My prediction: RAYS will quickly rise, then dwindle.

S.W.



To: Bilow who wrote (817)3/11/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: marc chatman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 971
 
In a nutshell, they grew the business mainly through a string of acquisitions, buying out small competitors. By adding stores at a rapid rate, the company gave the analysts a nice growth story -- dominating player, expanding into worldwide markets, accelerating revenues. The model is great for getting its founders rich, but that's about it. Someone ends up holding the bag when the growth slows and the company has to live or die by its performance. I think you could find any number of retailers, restaurant chains, etc., which fit this profile.

After the inevitable crash, it becomes a restructure story. Time to close non-performing stores and slash SG&A, a la Al Dunlop. The problem is that it took these guys about a year longer than it should have to do the deed. Those who were lucky enough to buy in near the bottom and patient enough to wait it out are getting a pretty nice return. The trick will be to know when to jump ship.