Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich Uncle who wrote (17543)	3/11/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Rich Uncle, This is just my opinion, but popular sentiment can be a very contrarian indicator. Ralph Agampura(sp) says DOW 10K by the end of the year, while other less certain, technical analysts are hesitant to support that philosophy. I see it this way, there is no reason for the fed to lower interest rates further, what would be the point, the economy is growing at about a 2-3% rate, inflation is non-existent, the US government has its' first monetary surplus since the early '70's, oil prices are low, and the available labor force is employed with unemployment somewhere in the 4% range. This is the good news. The bad news is that US exports are starting to decrease quarter to quarter, foreign imports are increasing significantly Q-Q. US wages are starting to feel some upward bias since they have been relatively stagnant for the last 5-6 years with only cost of living/inflation compensation adjustments. This in the face of huge corporate gains and US corporate managers getting compensated in the millions of dollars. US stocks are very highly priced relative to short term future earnings (<1 year) especially some of the high tech and internet stocks. The Asian markets will take a year or more to completely stabilize and represent several "wild cards" that could pop up at any time to destabilize the US/world markets, especially Japan, but that is a different topic. My scenario/prediction is a 10-20% correction by year end in all the major indices, possibly more if Japan tanks. I'm off my soapbox now, just my opinion, BB