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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (36596)	3/11/1998 10:52:00 PM
From: peter n matzke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

since they are offering this for free at the present time i'm sure they won't mind me copying it. he was dead on with the call on wed.. in my opinion he missed tuesday enjoy FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER PRECISE TIMING AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN UPDATED MARCH 11TH FOR MARKETS OF MARCH 12TH UPCOMING ECONOMIC REPORTS Last 3/12 Jobless Claims 2/28: -16/304 3/12 Retail Sales Jan: +0.1% 3/12 Atlanta Fed Survey Jan: 8.1 STOCKS and MAR. and JUNE S & P WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher into June. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher to 1083 basis March S & P. TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 3/12 H; 3/13 L TURN: 3/17 H; 4/8 H TURN: 6/98 H SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Exit March longs at 1082 or by the close of the 17th of March if not filled. Buy June 1077.80 mit and 1076.40 mit with a 1071.25 stop. DAY-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Cover March shorts market on open. (3/12) We are rolling to the June contract, which is trading 11.30 points above the March contract. At this point it appears that the market is wanting to rally toward 1089.00 basis June before we get a pullback and probably 1093.30 into next week. It's fairly clear that shorts do not work very well and at best we still see only a 6-point pullback off of Wednesday's high coming. We do think the market is potentially vulnerable on Friday but the energy point that peaks into late Tuesday will probably keep the market up and possibly even accelerate it toward the 1133 region. At this point, that may be our early April high target. But given the rate at which this market is moving, it could happen sooner. If we fall more than 10 points, then we could be starting a quick-and-nasty 34-point correction into Friday that would revisit the 1043 region. We think that may have only a 20% chance of manifesting and that we will continue to work quickly higher toward the 1093.30 region into the 16-17th. We did like the new high on the Dow, which now projects 8764 and then 8813 and we could easily hit our old weekly chart target of 8950. But will it take until April 8 to manifest or will it happen by next week? DAY-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 5-6 point pullbacks off of Wednesday's high and expect that we will probably continue higher one more day before we get a pullback on Friday. Until we get more than a 10-point drop, top-picking will be dangerous. CYCLES: Weak periods are only creating sideways activity for this market so we have to assume that underlying strength will continue into the close of the 17th. Major cycles are higher into late Thursday on the secondary level and into early Monday on the primary level. The minor cycle on Friday, may be messy enough to create a temporary setback. LARGER OVERVIEW: Unless Japan dumps its US bonds on the market, it appears nothing will phase the fund-manager bulls from pushing this market higher. We do expect that the impact on Asia will get intense enough in April to again create volatility and potentially push the market down to the 906 region into the May cycle low--but we may hit the 1133 region first. TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS: (2/24) Look for particular weakness in the technology and communications sectors from about March 5-April 13, which means that NASDQ should particularly start trailing the broader market. INTRADAY NOTES: New services now in effect: QUICK-TRADES HOTLINE: updated at 8:20 am and hourly from 8:30 am-1:30 pm CST; $2.50 PER CALL. S & P COMMENTARY LINE: updated with pre-opening comments and at 10:35 am, 12:35 pm, and 2:00 pm; longer and more detailed; priced monthly. TRADE ALERT: computerized calls alert traders to set-ups for more significant swing trades is now operating for trades with good risk/rewards. Call 1-515-472-6866 for details. OEX NOTES: (3/12) Longer-term, patterns project 527 as late as April 8 with major support at 490-492 probably holding. Continue to favor calls for another 4 trading days. JUNE T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower. DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Topping and lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 3/12 H; 3/13 L/H TURN: 4/13 L TURN: 6/98 H TRADING STRATEGY: Stand aside. (3/12) T-Bonds are acting as if they want to go toward the 121.00 region with support at 119.29 and 119.24. At this point, with daily stochastics higher, we should at least hold longs into late Friday with a change of trend likely over the weekend. There appears to be another energy point that will hold this market up until Friday. We are too overbought to be buying this market at these levels. An early fall is likely to take the market to at least 120.00 and aggressive traders may want to be a buyer there. We are not that excited about the long side from these levels and feel better stand aside. But there is a good chance of lower numbers and the Japanese may want to sell US bonds to balance their fiscal year budgets that end on March 31 (contribution from a subscriber--thanks to JW). FOREIGN CURRENCY NOTES (3/12) We may be lower toward the 100.90 region on Thursday but still continue higher into Friday and probably Tuesday of next week. We are still inclined to see a higher dollar into around March 17 and would favor selling foreigns here. JUNE DEUTSCHEMARK DAILY CHART TREND: Lower toward 5398. TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 3/12 H; 3/13 L TURN: 3/16-17 L TURN: 6/98 L SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts. (3/12) We may get a minor bounce on Thursday but continue lower into the open of the 18th and we would continue to hold shorts. Look for resistance at 5529 and 5536 and a major target on the downside over the next week of 5397 with first support at 5445. We may open higher on the DM on Thursday and stay below 5529 and that may offer a selling opportunity with a low into Friday and probably Monday-Tuesday of next week. THE LARGER PATTERN: The confirmed breakdown on the DM inclined it toward a move to the 4600 region into June and rallies should be sold. However, we may get a bounce off of the 5400 region and have a better possibility from a later date. JUNE JAPANESE YEN DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Sideways to higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 3/12 H; 3/16 L TURN: 3/16 L TURN: 9/98 L SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts into Monday. (3/12) The gap lower on continued BOJ scandals created a bad fill and part of that gap may be filled on Thursday with resistance at 7860, 7890 and 7905. We should still be lower into Monday but we may need to cover early next week. We see lower yen prices toward the 7650 region into early next week. Since we continue to fail to rally much, the energy appears to be on the short side and we will make sure that we get something on. Resistance is up at the downtrending line at 8048. The bigger picture over the next few weeks on the yen suggests a fall to the 7632 region to complete 3 waves down. But that still may be followed by 3 or 5 waves up back toward the 8200-8300 region. Daily stochastics have turned lower reminding us to favor shorts. BIGGER PICTURE: It appears the yen will continue to depreciate toward 130 and perhaps 135. JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Lower. SHORT-TERM POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts. (3/12) We have a high for the CD into Thursday and a pullback into Monday and the breakout will keep us on the sidelines as we are likely to move up toward the 7174 region before we pullback. First resistance is at the 7146 region and then 7163 and 7175 with support at 7103 and 7090. The weekly chart trend is suggesting a move toward 7310 but we did not think that the CD could muster the energy to make it up. APRIL GOLD WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower into April. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Sideways. SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts. (3/12 no change) Our next energy point for gold is now Friday at the open and we will see what develops as it's not totally clear. Resistance is at 295.80 and 297.40 and 299 and we are inclined to accumulate as we think the downside is more likely to manifest this month. The later we get into March, the more bearish we will get so we are looking for a good risk/reward for new shorts at this point but we will be patient for another day. MAY SILVER WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower into late April. DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming. TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Topping and lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 3/13 L TURN: Research in progress TURN: 4/98 L; 7/98 H SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Cover shorts on Friday. (3/12) We would expect at least a fall toward the 596 region with additional support at 588 and 573. We have a big enough lead that we will hold silver through the PPI on Friday. Because we have 7 major cycle lows over the next week, we are still reluctant to bottom-pick and have to assume to continue to sell the rallies. Still, we may not take out Monday's low, and with the PPI on Friday, the market may be sluggish in anticipation. We see at least 588-590 and then probably 573 on cycle lows this week. We may be finishing the first push down in a large consolidation on silver and the best buying opportunity for the next few months may be manifesting soon. BIGGER PICTURE: Longer-term, cycles support higher prices into July toward the 780 and perhaps the 840 region. The market does appear vulnerable to the downside into late April but a large congestion pattern between 700 and 540 still could manifest. See monthly newsletter for longer-term cycles and pattern details. MAY CRUDE WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower to 1208-1240 into June. DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher to 1652. TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 3/11 H; 3/12 L TURN: 4/16 H TURN: 4/98 H; 6/98 L SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs. (3/12) The new lows got us much closer to our target last Monday and at this point if we hold 1400 basis April and 1440 basis May, we still think we are in the process of bottoming. Since we have not yet turned impulsive on the upside, we see no reason to fight the weekly chart trend and add here. At these levels, we'd say that we're just about done with the large 3rd wave decline and that a 4th wave bounce should start here and move toward the 1652 region. LONGER-TERM: We still could hit new lows into late June region if rallies fail. Have a great trading day! Barry Rosen STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. BARRY ROSEN HAS LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR HIMSELF OR FOR HIS CUSTOMERS. BECAUSE THERE ARE NO ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS. REGISTERED CFTC. *********************** CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS ************************ OPEN PROFIT/ MARKET MO. S/L ENTRY STOP (LOSS) S & P MAR. LONG 1051.60 1054.30 4250 S & P MAR SHORT 1069.30 (day) 1070.00 175 T-BONDS JUN. FLAT DM JUN. SHORT 5486 5542 (75) YEN JUN. SHORT 7827 7970 (137.50) CANADIAN JUN. FLAT GOLD APR. SHORT 295.60 301.30 50 SILVER MAY SHORT 627.50 635 750 CRUDE MAY LONG 1470 1430 (140) TOTAL OPEN PROFIT/(LOSS): 4872.50 Open profits or losses do not contain commissions. *********************************************************************** INTRADAY HOTLINE now available. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details & rates. TRADING STRATEGIES: Day-Trade= 1-day; Swing= 2-5 days; Short-Term Position= 1-3 weeks; Position= 1 month or longer. TRADING INSTRUCTIONS: Go with day entries for limit orders and unless specified "night session ok." Stops are not accepted in the night session, and some night session entries may be available in the day session. "Night recommended" means we expect the best entry may be in the night session, and this especially applies to report days and entries on the S & P before the T-Bond market opens. MIT orders are accepted for block orders of T-Bonds at certain trading desks. We are using stop limit orders to prevent absurd fills on a large gap open or close. Breakout and breakdown orders on stops should only be entered during the day session and should not be used at the open of a market unless they are accompanied by a limit order. Note: (early only) means first 1-1 1/2 hours of trade. Exit targets should be executed in day or night session. Market on open orders with limits are only executable during the opening range and should be pulled after five minutes if not filled. If the market gaps under or over our stop at the open, the order is negated and should not be entered later in the day. All times cited are Central standard or daylight savings time. ********************************************************************** NOTE: This research is not intended for distribution to third parties for promotional purposes. ************************************************************************* Fortucast Market Timing, Inc. PO Box 2066 Fairfield, IA 52556 (515)-472-6866