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Technology Stocks : ACTM $100 Million Cable Modem Contract with MOT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kvogel who wrote (604)	3/11/1998 11:54:00 PM
From: Rob Preuss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1250

Wow... you guys must get home from the bars the same time I do:-)... thanks for all the responses. I think we're studying not the intrinsic value of the stock (after all, we have damned little to go on), but rather the market psychology pertaining to this stock. I find market psychology extremely difficult to pin down, especially in a situation such as this. In statistical terms (I'm a mathematician), I'd say there is a very large variance to any estimates of where the stock price will go based on market psychology. Such a high variance makes this a highly speculative stock at any price. In simple terms, my approach is to try and figure the intrinsic value of a stock and buy if it appears to be undervalued; at this point I would not buy ACT at any price because I cannot figure its intrinsic value with adequate confidence. I've seen value estimates such as $25-30/sh based on sales revenue of $25-30/sh and a PSR of 1. There are other methods too. But each makes certain assumptions regarding information about the company (e.g., we assume annual sales of $25-30/sh going forward) and it always comes back to the quality of our information (or lack thereof)... so I find it really hard to trust any valuation at the moment. Until we get more solid information (which I expect we'll have by 30 March) and can come to believe some estimate of intrinsic value for this company, I will not be a buyer. BTW> I consider selling to be speculative here too. So I'm not a seller either.