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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Rolfe who wrote (17558)	3/12/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

1) amat has said that growth in Japan is a "wild card" that taiwan is slowing and that dram pricing is haveing neg. effect. also amat has predicted flat to lower revenues this year... and the % u post do not affect total rev.s just break it down... also read my prev. post and go to blooomberg... there is at least a good chance that we ain't seen nothing yet 2)yes their growth is in new systems but are rev growth is on hold in their estimation, and in view of the extended holls they announced, it seems reasonable to assume that revs from old systems are declining faster than sales of new systems can comp.for.... also read the dell and intc threads tonight... there are a number of interesting posts about intc capex and how they might be able to meet current demand without going to 300mm in the near future. 3)the broker recommendations are imho a major neg. because they are wayyyy too high for the reality, and therefore are more likely to be revised down than up. 4) to go up we have to hit a bottom... I simply don't think we've gotten there... but the point of my post was to stimulate the bull perspective... so lets keep it comming

To: Steve Rolfe who wrote (17558)	3/12/1998 1:00:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Steve, Re:We all need to be looking for the signs. AMAT's stock price may be well on the way up before the up cycle gets into full gear if we are not careful. But, exactly what should we be looking for? Anyone? Keep your eye on the industry B2B numbers month to month, as well as increasing large orders announced in press releases... Now, a question for you. What would you think if the most recent B2B is lower than Jan's B2B, would that indicate growth in the industry??How will that affect stock price and the equipment mfg's short term upside potential? Will fund managers want to watch their large investment in the equip mfg's erode Q-Q over the next 6+ months or will they elect to use that capital elsewhere until things improve in the semi sector? BB