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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jason W. France who wrote (104)3/12/1998 8:59:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2578
 
>>> if however you were suggesting some sort of lack of
confidence on part of dell execs, I think you are WAY off base

My primary objective is to have informed discussion and let the reader
draw his own conclusion (pro or con). The short to intermediate term
(3 to 6 months) looks a little rocky in my opinion, and only an
opinion. This is because of external macroscopic forces outside the
control of the company.

- Seasonal weakness for the PC industry after the Year-end season

- Inventory supply gluts in just about all manufacturers supply chains
translating into a vicious price war which we are seeing the early
stages of. Both in PCs and servers. I have tried to provide the
data to support this opinion in my posts. I suggest that you go back
and read them.

- Difficulty in supporting a P/E of 50+ with a market that grows about
15 percent a year in light of the above circumstances.

As far being "WAY off base"; let me observe
that I have been surprised over the years as to the motivations
of execs. takning various actions from: family illness, change of
employer, etc - stockholder benign rationale to stock manipulation,
early exit because of financial or regulatory difficulty. Only in the
fullness of time will we see the entire picture formed by these small
pieces of information.

- Seasonal weakness for the PC industry after the Year-end season

- Inventory supply gluts in just about all manufacturers supply chains
translating into a vicious price war which we are seeing the early
stages of. Both in PCs and servers. I have tried to provide the
data to support this opinion in my posts. I suggest that you go back
and read them.

- Difficulty in supporting a P/E of 50+ with a market that grows about
15 percent a year in light of the above circumstances.