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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eddy Hagan who wrote (10035)	3/12/1998 9:17:00 AM
From: Skeptic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

y2k computer programmer shortfall I'm not convinced that the shortage of programmers is all that valuable for the shareholders of the companies for whom they work. The programmers are the scarce resource and they will derive the majority of the benefits. As you mentioned, they are demanding more pay. Since this can easily be passed on to the customer, revenues, costs, and profits increase proportionately. However, the service providers don't own the programmers. They are essentially brokers for the programmers' services and receive a percentage of the business as a result. If they try to take too big of a cut, it will benefit both the customers and programmers to bypass the middleman. Yes, the increased business volume is good for these companies, but its a temporary situation. After 2000, the demand will return to more normal levels and prices will decline. Programmer salaries will be cut or they will be laid off. Either way, revenues and profits will decline. IMHO, the benefits from increased business over the next several years have already been reflected in the stock prices. They are being priced as if the business will continue to grow rapidly long after 2000, and this is clearly not the case.