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To: JMD who wrote (10831)	3/12/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: Tim Mak	Respond to of 25814

Mike: Good point. Isn't that one of the reasons why DPMI looks so attractive?! ... Regards, Tim.

To: JMD who wrote (10831)	3/12/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Mike: I'm not sure that AMAT will benefit from the woes of the likes of WDC and say the box makers like CPQ. But you are right AMAT and the other semi-equips are in the catbirds seat longer term. I just don't like their prospects over the next 2-3 quarters. I've noticed the semi-equip prices have been slowly drifting down these days. However this shifting to finer design widths has been going on since chips were first being made and the shift to 300 mm when it arrives will be welcome. One bugaboo to me is whether there will be enough demand to soak up all the excess chips that can be made. I hope so. Because if not there will be price wars from now to eternity! In a sense this is why the slowdown in cap. spending the last couple of years plays into the semis' hands. Those ASPs have to start going up and that makes the semis happy. At which point they will go to AMAT and buy more equipment and start the cycle all over. On the demand for chips thing the reason I am optimistic is that I think everything is going digital soon and that will translate into explosive demand. The cheaper chips will just help this process along. The PC guys like WDC etc have to curb production but they might do all right because unit demand is strong. At some point all the cheap inventory will be gone and they too will be making money (I hope). These are all nothing more than cyclical industries going through their paces. Windows 98 release should get the buying going. Shane.