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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (9336)	3/12/1998 12:39:00 PM
From: HerbVic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

Alomex, Thank you for your interesting point of view and valuable insight. It is important in the face of rising stock prices to keep our feet on the ground, though our heads may be soaring through the endless possibilities in the clouds of future expectations. I would disagree on the "great new CEO soon" as the driving influence. I see that as but one of a constellation of positives that are exerting influence. The advertising campaign is aggressive and well targeted to extract the maximum consumer attention. IBM's news concerning future processors that would be used by Apple is having a marked effect on investors long term evaluation. Part of the heightened interest is due to speculative interest, both short and long term, fueled by future product release expectations [Rhapsody, Apple Media Player, enterprise servers with thin client NC's]. You correctly assume a decline in upgrade to G3 sales. My own expectation is that this will be offset by heightened consumer interest due to the potentially successful ad campaign, stealing market share away from the huge Wintel pool. As long as Apple continues to raise the bar of performance expectation, gains [or at least maintenance] in market share can be expected. With execution of Rhapsody as insurance, growth has a greater assurance factor. At risk is acceptance of a new expensive product rollout campaign. If, as expected, it executes well, then you have your significant new paradigm, and the split is the limit. Currently at 26, the stock has tried to correct down but reversed sharply before reaching 25 1/2. The DOW is DOWn, due primarily to Japan bank news. NASDAQ is flat. IMHO, we will see the stock stay between 25 1/2 and 26 1/2 until concrete news gives direction. Next Tuesday? Then it's either boom or bust, 28+ or 22+. IMHO. However, I am a complete idiot, IMHO. Sippin' cider, HerbVic

To: Alomex who wrote (9336)	3/12/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: L.Gardner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

<<The runup to $26 is a bet on announcement of a great new CEO soon, if it doesn't pan out the stock will retrace back to $20-22.>> etc., etc. I disagree. The run-up is pent-up demand by institutional investors for a cheap computer stock with a big brand name, and appl is the only one left to buy. But blocks have been relatively small, so I'm betting that Good Q2 results will open up the floodgates, and I'm looking for 30+ by 15 April. . . Of course, I'll be putting a defensive stop on my holdings just in case earning announcements don't quite pan out the way they should. A good CEO wouldn't hurt either, but Jobs has been good enough. Way good enough, imo. Still long at $17.25. . . L.G. P.S. You're too long-winded.

To: Alomex who wrote (9336)	3/12/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: louis mason	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213173

Alomex Ya Buddy, just admit it- you are like me and were completely taken by surprise of this stocks rise. I'd love it to drop to 20.00 so that I could buy in on a trend that WE just plain missed. I'm not proud.. l mason

To: Alomex who wrote (9336)	3/12/1998 5:58:00 PM
From: Hugues	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213173

It's very valuable to have a cold input, especially on this fever times. You're right to try to see it long, because that's the easiest way not to be wrong. Short time playing is very difficult imho, and lot of informed people here missed the train, because of bad timing. So what's the correct valuation ? EPS x PER. Estimated EPS, as shown in yahoo at 0.91 is probably underestimated, because of G3, new ads and Rhapsody's prospects. Some analysts put 1.09, Philip Lee here 1.2+, and this was before the sub 1000 $ announcement, which is very important in terms of market shares and credibility, then in terms of high end sales. So let's keep with 1.2 We have now a PER of 22.5. (todays' close: 27 $) This is not much compared to other computer manufacturers, but it is important in absolute. It supposes significant growth in the next years. Is it likely to happen ? That's difficult to say, but there is room for it. With under 5 % of world sales, there is significant room for improvement. (and let's not forget the market is also expanding) Rhapsody and sub 1000 $ computer will sure push sales. But I am not convinced that the g3 and its followers (higher clocking, G4 ...) in itself has no potential beyond this year. In other words, Apple could grow with its current offer/paradigm. On the bonus sides, there are lots of things that could come from Apple technological advance in multimedia. The AMP is one example. The partnership with sony on DV video is another one. So my guess is that 27 $ is not a very risky price, and that there are chances of speculation above 30 $. To go beyond, we would need hard facts: growth + sustained margin