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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valueman who wrote (2204)	3/12/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Geoff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Readware clarifies his statement re: Loral's earnings. =========== Subject: Loral 1997 Earnings Report Date: Wed, Mar 11, 1998 22:54 EST From: Readware Message-id: <19980312035400.WAA16018@ladder02.news.aol.com> No, what I wrote was that Loral earned $.06/share for the 4th qtr without K&F sale. Entering the 4th qtr LOR had lost for the year $.14/share. In the 4th qtr, as I read the numbers, it earned $.06/share for the 4th qtr. I am correct on that reading. So, now it is at ($.08)/share (an 8 cents/share loss)as the books get tabulated for the year. However, there is the K&F sale. With the K&F sale, after taxes (a 47.5% tax rate on a one time sale is the standard rate), and divided by 236 million basic shares, you get a profit of $.1447/share [14.4 cents/share profit]. That is how you get to the $.06/share profit for the year (K&F gain of $.1447/share minus the loss of $.08/share (a loss reduced by the 4th qtr profit of $.06/share) gives you for the year a profit of $.0647/share (or 6 cents/share). So: You get $.06/share for the 4th qtr, and with K&F, as I have explained, you get $.06/share profit for the year. The profit in the 4th qtr came from the upsurge in Skynet earnings-- they were 42% higher than I thought they would be. That is why I adjusted the Skynet numbers for 1998 as I did. However, after all is said and done, this 4th qtr profit, and this 1997 year profit, is verily "green eye shades and slide rules". That's all it is right now. It will not be easy to actually pinpoint with respectability (and by that I mean within 1 or 2 cents/share) earnings for Loral until the 4th qtr of 1999 at the earliest, and definitely by the 1st qtr of 2000. It is a company still in formation, and will be until all its satellites are in-orbit, you have the appropriate amortization schedules for the satellites, the appropriate tax carry forwwards, etc. And even in the year 2000, it is going to be very hard-- but it is doable-- to get numbers down to within 1 or 2 cents/share because of Globalstar's subscription growth. As for the other question: the pricing model assumes LOR turns earnings positive in the 4th qtr of 1998, and has always assumed that. And we will be right. If I could accurately identify the leasing rates for Skynet, I could have a better read on the 1st three qtrs of this year. It does look, and I say look, like LOR might turn a profit in this qtr, but then I do not know how C* and G* are being expensed from qtr to qtr in 1998. That will determine whether or not LOR declares a net profit for the 1st qtr 1998 (as opposed to simply an EBITDA announcement). But I am fairly confident that LOR will starting in the 4th qtr of 1998 and from then on (assuming all the satellites are in-orbit on a timely basis) be declaring net earnings, and no longer be strictly an EBITDA situation. Subject: Re: Loral 1997 Earnings Report Date: Thu, Mar 12, 1998 09:16 EST From: Readware Message-id: <19980312141601.JAA06743@ladder01.news.aol.com> There was no guidance to me at all far from LOR on the tax rate I used for the K&F sale. I do believe your 35% rate is too low, however. If the rate is closer to 35% than the 47.5% I used, if your analysis is correct, in other words, then my SSL numbers are too high for the 4th qtr. Right now, and for the next 2-3 quarters, making estimates is going to be "green eye shades and slide rule" as I wrote given that the company is still expensing certain divisions, and launching satellites whose amortization begins only on the day of reaching final orbit, etc., etc. I do believe it is LOR's position that earnings are not of primary significance till next year as it develops its different divisions this year, but I do thank you for your tax rate observation. Subject: Iridium CDMA Date: Thu, Mar 12, 1998 10:07 EST From: Readware Message-id: <19980312150701.KAA13177@ladder03.news.aol.com> Iridium 2nd generation will use TDMA for voice, CDMA for data.

To: Valueman who wrote (2204)	3/15/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: Valueman	Respond to of 10852

Here is a little more info on L-Star which I think will end up in Loral's hands. There are two birds, 16 high power Ku-band transponders each. The transponders are grouped in three zones. The western beam covers Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. The eastern beam covers eastern China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan. The center beam Thailand, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, Vietnam, Southern China. This group of transponders covers 2 billion people. Perhaps Mr. A or another engineering type could answer this question. These sats are set up for BSS--what would need to be changed to allow telephony over this satellite?

To: Valueman who wrote (2204)	3/15/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: Valueman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10852

As you can see, I am trying to figure out where Loral is going to start up their telephony by GEO. I always forget that they own Ku-band transponders on Agila II. These have a coverage area including Taiwan, The Phillipines, and Eastern China. That is another possibility. Other interesting news somewhat related to Loral: Shinewatra Satellite, a Thailand operator of the Thaicom sats posted an enormous loss recently. They also have $67 million in short term debt due very soon--it doesn't look good. AsiaSat, on the other hand, posted a nice profit with utilization rates remaining around 85-90%, but warning of decreased demand. And so it goes......