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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (3516)	3/12/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78644

Hello thread! I just stumbled across this thread, and would like to pose a challenge to all of you. I don't believe a good valuation model exists. The ones that I've seen so far ignore what I believe to be the underpinnings of a rational stock valuation methodology: expected free cash flows, expected growth, risk, and finally, the discount rate with which to tie it all together. I've seen heuristics from the various incarnations of Graham and Dodd, along with PEG and YPEG systems, and frankly, none of them make any mathematical sense. What do you people think? Regards, Paul

To: Michael Burry who wrote (3516)	3/18/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: Terry Maynard	Respond to of 78644

Nike announcement: newsday.com Maybe the price will go lower tomorrow. Good Investing Terry

To: Michael Burry who wrote (3516)	3/20/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78644

re: SWR - cigar and smokeless tobacco co. (also BAB) re: SWR Positives (as pointed out by Mike B.): very high roe, insider buying, mutual fund buying, low pe, price near its low, understandable business with, IMO, some barrier to entry. Negatives are "tobacco", trendiness of cigars - possibly a "last year's story", announced flat sales, precursor to subsequent flat or down earnings, stock is owned by Mike B., and not too much history as a public co. Personal negative is that SWR seems now to be the best value idea I can see--I hope I am not dragging from the bottom of the barrel. Neutrals maybe are: co. has been in business many, many years, "correct" bv is hard (for me) to determine, tobacco co's are coming back as of this day, but not SWR. -gg-. --just joking -- (I'll categorize Mike's purchase as a positive.) Message 3687997 I took on a position today. SWR meets a lot of the profile characteristics I'm looking for in a value based stock. However, I do not like the business, and I AM concerned about the trendiness of cigars. The stock's been mentioned here twice. Absolutely no discussion. Therefore, I assume no interest -- maybe because everyone thinks as I do..."Geez, not a tobacco stock, Puleez...and ...oh no--not cigars fer cryin' out loud." Well, if it's this ugly and there's surely no momentum or growthies around... then we may just be near the base low for the stock (13). That's how I'm betting anyway. ('Course maybe there will be plenty of interest if the stock drops to 9 or 8 -g-.) Starting also a very small position in British Airways. Yes, I'm very late to the party, but BAB should continue to do well over the next couple of years. Purchasing BAB based on relative dividend yield. My company of choice in the industry is AMR (great Latin Am. routes and business), but I missed the move and am reluctant to chase. Paul Senior