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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (1969)	3/12/1998 5:27:00 PM
From: Smilodon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4134

Value is in the eye of the beholder. I am long WCII, PTEL and OMPT. WCII based on a great story and growing from a small base. Hence expectations are easy to meet. PTEL (PCS provider in southeast) also has those same characteristics, but from my past VC experience I have a good feel for the value of their spectrum. OMPT is a combination of those two. In all three cases I am not sure they will ever make money, but I think they will have explosive subscriber growth, which will fuel the stock. Also, telecom is consolidating, so we have that hype as well. I will be out of all of them well before we ever find out if they can make money. @Home is probably a short at some point, but it has many of the same attributes as the previous three (with an even higher valuation). HLIT, on the other hand has disappointed investors, so its image is now tarnished. Investors feel jilted and hurt. Valuation is cheap. But, if their fundamentals improve and they start beating expectations they have a long way to move up because of the low valuations. In my view, high-flying growth stocks are more likely to go up due to their momentum, but have a lot more downside risk if they slip due to their valuation. Value stocks are less likely to go up but have more room to run if they start improving their fundamentals. I think the risk reward tradeoff is usually superior with value stocks. At least that is what I keep telling my partners. Sometimes, they think I am a genius, and sometimes, they know I am an idiot. Regardless, I don't expect to make any money on HLIT until Q3 or Q4. When they start beating estimates they can easily double. Until then, we are just drifting. Don't get discouraged. Short-term price action means nothing to our ultimate results. Our fate in this stock is being determined by HLIT's sales force and engineers. We are just along for the ride. (Kind of like a horse race) I am just trying to play the odds. JMHO PS: Tim, I really appreciate the knowledge you bring to this thread. We are all lucky to have you here.