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To: Laptev who wrote (13718)3/12/1998 7:38:00 PM
From: Mang Cheng  Respond to of 22053
 
On the topic of throwing darts, from today WSJ :

March 12, 1998

"'Dartboard' Pros Beat Chance, But Barely Outdo Industrials"

By GEORGETTE JASEN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

A team of investment professionals crushed the forces of chance in this
column's latest stock-picking contest, but barely beat the Dow Jones
Industrial Average.

The four pros posted an average investment
gain of 10.9% from Sept. 10, 1997, to Feb.
27, 1998, compared with a 3.3% loss for a
portfolio of stocks chosen by flinging darts
at the stock tables. The Dow industrials rose 10.7% during the same
period.

<snipped>

For the contest ending Aug. 31, 1998, the four pros will be competing
against a dartboard portfolio consisting of
Eastman Kodak Co.,
Harken Energy Corp.,
Public Storage Inc. and
Salient 3 Communications Inc.


Results of the competition just ended leave the pros ahead of the darts by
a score of 56 to 37 in the 93 contests since current rules were adopted in
July 1990. The score is closer when the pros are compared to the Dow
industrials at 49 to 44.

But the professionals are far ahead of both the darts and the Dow when
average investment gains are compared. In the 93 contests, the pros have
racked up an average six-month gain of 11.3%, compared with 5.2% for
the forces of chance and 6.9% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.


Experts vs. Darts the Past Six Months
Performance Sept.10, 1997-Feb. 27, 1998

Clarion Group Buy: Genelabs +20.7%
Tucker Hargrove Buy: Electronic Data Systems +17.8
Dominion Capital Advisors Buy: Apple Computer +3.0
Rauscher Pierce Buy: Sotheby's +2.2

Experts as a group +10.9
Dartboard Portfolio (b) - 3.3
Dow Jones Industrial Average +10.7


(b) Four stocks picked by throw of darts:
Eli Lilly & Co., up 25.1%;
La Quinta Inns, down 2.9%;
Banco Frances del Rio de la Plata, down 9.7%;
Canadian Occidental Petroleum, down 25.7%.


Mang



To: Laptev who wrote (13718)3/13/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: Jeffery E. Forrest  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 22053
 
I'm shocked how defensive you are about your TA trading system!
I'm not defensive about Technical Analysis in the slightest. I KNOW what works. As I stated originally, TA allowed me to short CPQ for a quick 15% return .
(I woulda made more, BUT I chickened out, followed my emotions instead of my charts, and bailed out early even though my charts told me to stay in.)

I AM defensive when someone who I have NEVER MET before comes into my neighborhood and disparages the way I make my living.

TA "investing" is simply an attempt to use charts to measure inside/illegal trading based on information that you are not privy to.
Absolute NONSENSE. That is an idiotic statement ma'am. Is that what they're trying to teach you on the Motley Fool these days? They don't call them fools for nothing I guess.

TA is a TOOL that shows where you've been and anticipates where you're going.
If it is anything, it is a measure of investor psychology.

I wouldn't travel in a strange place without a roadmap and I will not play the market without a roadmap (charts)
It's very similar to tracking an animal. TA allows me to "track" the big game and anticipate it's movement.

It's not 100%, nothing is, but it allows me a HUGE advantage over someone that doesn't know how to read a chart.

The only folks that dispute the functionality of TA are those that haven't taken the time to figure it out or aren't bright enough to understand it.
The fact is that EVERYBODY uses TA to some extent. (Have you ever looked at a stocks volume? You just did some TA)

my lucky charms comment was meant to be tongue in cheek
Hmmm, seemed more like a head in ass to me.
What a lying sack of shinola you are. I'm not sure WHAT your intent is, but it's obvious in the tone of BOTH your posts that your remarks were NOT meant in fun.

Bottom line- I had a 40% return on my money THIS WEEK using TA. How did YOU do LapDOG?



To: Laptev who wrote (13718)3/16/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Pullin-GS  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 22053
 
Lapdog...(hehehehe)
I must say that either Jeff has a lucky star following him around due to all the great plays he has been in on, or perhaps maybe his evolving TA system has merit. I would expect the latter.

chow