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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Chen who wrote (5477)	3/13/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: X-Ray Man	Respond to of 74651

Well, this is how I plan to play "whisper". I expect MSFT did not do quite as well as hoped, but because of their ability to move the money around, as you suggest, they will surely meet or beat by a penny or two their current estimate. However, if the whisper numbers are significantly higher, and stock has crept back up, I will likely buy puts prior to earnings, since I expect the stock will take a short term hit if it doesn't make whisper numbers. None of this has to do with real valuation, but with guessing about the psychology of the market for this stock. JMO. Guess I should also add that if I am right, I would quickly cash in those puts and buy calls, because I think the following quarter will show earnings growth from intro of Win98, and even if held up, Mac Office98 is just out, and I expect this to be a best seller generating comparable revenues.