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To: Gottfried who wrote (17648)	3/12/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: yosi s	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Tokio up 3% government supports helps do not discount JAPAN They will do things as they see fit on their term quote.yahoo.com^N225&d=t

To: Gottfried who wrote (17648)	3/12/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: Joseph Beltran	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I don't profess to have all the answers but one reason why the Japanese "recession" has not affected us that much is because the U.S. has been in a fantastic "growth mode" over most of that period and demand for our products has been strong domestically and in other parts of the world. The current indications however are that we will slow down in the near future and the "asia" crisis will certainly advance that process. Japan has the potential (and always has had) of being a great market for our products and services but the barriers to trade there are real and substantial. Witness the CHRONIC TRADE DEFICIT which we have had with that country. It has gotten to the point where the Clinton administration has even given up bullshitting us into believing that they were going to do something about it. regards

To: Gottfried who wrote (17648)	3/12/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: roly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, Here's your answer why Japan and Asia will not greatly impact the US economy yet. If not for the Asian situation, I bet we will be worrying about how much basis point the next interest rate hike will be by AG. biz.yahoo.com Roly

To: Gottfried who wrote (17648)	3/13/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM - Japan in recession has not bothered us too much the last 7 years they've been in it. NOW it is supposed to impact the US greatly. Could you explain why, please. Although I agree with you that Japan's being in a recession is not a catastrophe for the US, a full blown depression would be. (A huge percent of our exports go to Japan.) And, although I think it is unlikely, it is possible that something will tip them into that state. For the last 7 years they have been edging ever closer to an unknowable precipice, and no one knows when they will slip over. Hopefully they fix their system before then, but ... . Thus, I think the SEA crisis is unlikely to send us into a recession, and is likely to have only a short term effect on semiconductor equ sales. However, if China, or especially Japan, fall off the cliff, we might have some problems. JMO. Clark