To: Hawkeye who wrote (1839 ) 3/12/1998 9:15:00 PM From: David E. Smith Respond to of 5827
Dow Jones Newswires -- March 6, 1998 Ford Fuel Cells/Platinum -2: Demand Seen Rising In 2 Yrs "Once the market perceives that this is really going to happen then (platinum) prices are bound to react," said Jeremy Coombes, general manager of marketing at Johnson Matthey. Johnson Matthey believes platinum prices could start rising on the prospect of auto fuel-cell demand in two years."We could say from 2000 onwards market prices should start moving on this," said Coombes. Tightening legislation on auto emission levels within the European Union and across the U.S. is believed to be the main driving force behind the fuel-cell and other alternative engine systems which run on electricity rather than fossil fuels. With around 50 million cars and trucks sold each year and each fuel-cell vehicle requiring around 0.3 ounces of platinum, the potential boost to platinum demand is enormous. Platinum demand in 1997 totaled 5.09 million ounces or 158 metric tons, according to Johnson Matthey. The world's biggest platinum producer, South Africa's Anglo American Platinum Corp. (Amplats), has forecast a 500,000 ounce, or 10%, increase in platinum demand from fuel cells in 2010. Like Ford and Daimler-Benz, General Motors plans to launch a commercial fuel-cell vehicle by 2004 but the company is not yet willing to disclose the scale of its planned production line. "I think the odds are good (for a commercial fuel cell car) but I don't underestimate the competition because the internal combustion engine has had 100 years of development with consumers, it's set very high consumer expectations," said Byron McCormick, executive director of General Motors Global Alternative Propulsion Center. "We have some internal goals (for fuel cell cars) we hope to produce but forecasting the world seven years out is a pretty big feat for anybody." With South Africa accounting for over 75% of world platinum supply each year, the country and its three leading platinum producers - Amplats, Gencor's Impala Platinum Group and Lonrho PLC - have much to gain from the development of fuel cells. Although Russian supply is erratic and on the decline - exports lapsed for six months last year due to bureaucratic problems - there is enough platinum in South Africa and elsewhere to meet any sharp increase in demand, said Coombes. "In terms of resources in the ground there's no problem at all because there's a couple of hundred year's worth of platinum in the ground at accessible depth," he said. "And with a seven-year time horizon mining companies have enough advance notice to meet demand." Two mine expansions are underway at Amplats, new mine production is being developed in Zimbabwe by Australia's Broken Hill Proprietary Co. and Delta Group, and U.S. group Stillwater Mining Co. is ramping up production in Montana. Although researchers have made rapid progress in developing fuel cell technology there are still obstacles that need to be overcome before its commercial application. "There are two big challenges - firstly setting up the infrastructure for fuel and secondly the technology needs to progress at the same pace as the last few years to hit the goal for production in 2004," said Robert Veit, fuel-cell marketing manager for Daimler-Benz. Fuel cells currently generate electricity at a cost of $3,000 a kilowatt, while the conventional combustion engine can generate the same amount of energy for between $500 and $1,000, according to CPM Group. While platinum is among the most costly components in the fuel cell it is not the most expensive (the polymer membrane which divides the cell is) and at $385 a troy ounce platinum prices are currently well below the $500 level seen last summer. Nonetheless, researchers are working hard to reduce platinum loadings by 33% to around 10 grams a car. Powered by Quote Agentr and News Agentr from Gari Software/IDD Information Services Copyright c 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.