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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (2217)	3/12/1998 11:03:00 PM
From: Dragonfly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

RE: LOR and the fundamentals I've been lurking here for about 4 months. I bought into Iridium back then because I buy the LEO telecom story. Couldn't figure out what everyone was so excited about LOR and GSTRF for. Now I know. So, I've been buying LOR as much as I can (every time I get some money, the temptation is too strong to put it into LOR, so my GSTRF position is rather thin.) Anyway, I wanted to make a couple points: -- You cannot eliminate latency in communications. If it takes 300ms to send the signal at the speed of light, there's no way you'e going to eliminate that in the handset! Its the law. -- I see a lot of people talking about the movement in the stock price and it makes no sense to me-- LOR and GSTRF have been moving in virtual lock-step as long as I've been tracking them if you factor in their expected values... sure, during the Orion averaging period, LOR was slightly down, but it popped up exactly at the end of the. I believe that the earnings had something to do with it, but why hasn't it gone beyond GSTRF? On my graph of their prices as percentage of expected earnings, it shot right up to, but not thru the GSTRF line. So, I don't think you can say that LOR is undervlauded compared to GSTRF or that it will be at $50 this year... they aren't scheduled to be at a place where their worth $50 this year. Which brings me to: -- Usage- you cannot say "this stock is gong to perform great" because you believe anything about usage. That's just as spurious as "well, All these people have millions invested, so you know its going to be a success!" I don't think that analyst or Readware have a solid set of data to go on. We're all speculating until firm contracts are placed to buy minutes. --Valuation. Loral is still getting the pieces in place for its business plan, and so the P/E is extraordinary, but the Price does seem to be following closely a rational asessment of the value of the company. I re-crank through these numbers using every method I can think of and it looks to me like the market is rather efficient. IRIDF is higher priced, but that makes sense as they have more of their constellation in orbit.... and all three are following exactly the same price movement pattern. (GSTRF, IRIDF, LOR) Which means that- -- You should buy LOR. GSTRF and IRIDF are being valued based on expected revenues for a specific business (and when taking launch risk into count, they are being valued equally) However, LOR is getting most all of its value from its %40 stake in GSTRF (it seems) and so it will move up with it-- but once all the other components get into place, LOR will be much more valuable than GSTRF, because when you buy LOR you're getting almost as much per share GSTRF, + all the other businesses "for nearly free".... so, I beleive after 2000, LOR will start moving up faster than GSTRF as all the other revenues hit LOR's bottom line. -- Readware: Its seems surprising to me that so many people are basing stock purchase decisions on a single individucals (rather articulate and useful) comments. Who knows who this person is? Just as that angelo guy is an ORBI employee hyping the stock, we have now way of knowing his motivations. I appreciate the comments grately, but I think people should be ware-- do your own reasearch! Anyway, Hello, and thanks for all the high quality info on this board! Dragonfly

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (2217)	3/12/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: Valueman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10852

I had the same question, and the same lack of patent expertise. The company believes they are adequately protected. If they did not hold a patent at all, I think they have a huge advantage in time-to-market. Their Starwire product will have PCMA technology in September or thereabouts. The competition, it is believed, would be a year behind in developing something similar. VSAT believes that they "blindsided" the competition here. Realize also that even without PCMA, their DAMA technology was top notch. For instance, they offered Pasifik Satelit Nusantara twice the capacity of the Titan Linkabit system that eventually won the contract(with Alcatel's help). Alas, they are engineers, not politicians. I do belive that PCMA is an extra thick layer of icing on the cake, so to speak. That would put them WAY out in front. Plus, there is always the small company/great technology buyout possibility.