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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (4899)	3/12/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Joey, Why don't you also buy puts on JPM? Is it because they are actively seeking a merger partner? Someone told me that Bankers Trust, BT, is also vulnerable to derivatives. Can you confirm this? You mentioned Chase's Jan. 2000 leaps? Do you think it will take that long for the trouble to develop, or is it just that your short-term timing is awful like mine, and you want as much time before expiration as possible? :-) - Chas.

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (4899)	3/12/1998 11:57:00 PM
From: Yamakita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

"This spiral is being amplified by Japan's inability to compete ...." Huh? Inability to compete in what sectors? The big guns -- SONY, Toyota, Matsushita -- get more competitive with every downward notch in the yen. I wouldn't pronounce Japan DOA if I were you.

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (4899)	3/13/1998 1:01:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Respond to of 18691

JTC, Thanks very much for the link: kitcomm.com The implications are that, if true, the US investing public has been clearly taught, through the Fed's probable semi-covert market intervention, that valuations are immaterial and market risk does not exist -- at least not for the longs! As one might expect, the result of having learned this lesson is that stock valuations for many companies are now at all-time highs, yet with the worst forward earnings prospects in years. It looks like we've taken a page from Japan's book on how to maintain and expand an asset bubble. Lets hope our experience ends a bit better. After nearly a decade of stagnation and falling markets, the average Japanese company has low earnings, low return on equity, high multiples, and is dependent on nearly continuous government intervention to prop up share prices! Using tax dollars to create the illusion of equity value, what a concept...

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (4899)	3/13/1998 6:21:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

J2C: An Astralian (Damien) pointed out an interesting point which is that foreign investors are seeing the US as a safety heaven now. This makes sense to me. Historically, they have always been late to the party. It is interesting to see how little attention is been given to what is going on in Asia. I sold DAI and BMW (don't hae the ticker. trades on a pink shit) a few weeks back only to see them keep going up. Yesterday I sold HMC and TOYOY. IMO not the time to hold any auto stocks. Know a guy who is short C, haven't checked but it looks like a good idea. Short CCI. Regards, pancho PS: never looked atCMB, may be an even better candidate for all I know.