According to an analyst report (PW- 3/9/98) during this past week, Roche held a large marketing meeting in Spain with its sales force and clinicians, to launch Viracept. Based on industry sources, there are an estimated 400,000 HIV infected patients in Europe.
I think Agouron will make an announcement soon that they will begin phase II/III for AG3340. The phase II/III is supposed to begin in the first quarter.
Below is a post from L Moss on AOL, whose posts have always been very accurate.
Subject: Re: LMOSS Where are you?
Date: Mon, Mar 9, 1998 14:53 EST
From: LMoss
>FScalesi, since you were wondering, I'm still bullish on AGPH.
>Sales of Viracept continue to increase. AG3340, the MMP inhibitor, should begin >Phase 2/3 clinical studies for two indications (one type of prostate cancer and non->small cell lung cancer) within a few days or weeks. The potential markets for these >indications are very large, and testing for other indications should be phased in >over the next several months. A rhinovirus PI should be in clinical testing during >next winter's cold season.
The PW 12 month price target for Agouron is still $65-$70, based on fiscal 2000 EPS of $3.43, using a 30% discount rate and a 30 multiple.
The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 23.7 x 98 calendar year estimate of $1.56.
>Does anyone have any info as to the effect of Cananadian approval>
BTW, that is Canada, not Cananada
From: Message 3623901
I don't know if Viracept has been approved in Canada yet, but when it does receive approval, it should have a greater impact on sales of Viracept than Japanese approval, as there are significantly more HIV individuals in Canada than Japan, and Agouron will receive all revenues from sales of Viracept in Canada, except for what it pays Japan Tobacco, similar to sales of Viracept in the United States.
An article from July 1996 reported that: "In July 1996, 423 physicians in the CHAP's (Canadian HIV/AIDS care-giving physician) network cared for 44,738 HIV-positive patients."
aegis.com
The article below, from October 1997, indicates a significant drug problem in Vancouver, British Columbia, where a large group of heroin addicts, 6000 to 10,000 have developed the world's highest rate of HIV transmission -18.6% and there are fears they will spread the infection to the larger population. theglobeandmail.com
Viracept is now approved in 25 countries. Marketing approval has been applied for in Thailand but not yet been received. According to a '93 article, estimates in Thailand are for over 600,000 HIV infected; and 30,000 in Russia. Many HIV cases in Europe, North America, Japan, and elsewhere stem from tainted blood that was sold in the 80's, even when heat treating procedures were available.
aegis.com
There was a positive article about Agouron in Forbes, March 9 issue, available online: forbes.com
then search: Agouron (in the Quick Search box, on the top left).
Insight: AIDS and Agouron, by Michael Gianturco
An excerpt from the beginning:
>MERCK WAS QUICK out of the starting gate with the new class of anti-AIDS >drugs called protease inhibitors. As of a year ago its Crixivan was capturing 60% >of the market.
>But now Agouron Pharmaceuticals is coming on strong with a rival drug called >Viracept. There's a good chance that Viracept will set a new record for first-year >sales of a bio-engineered drug, with a $300 million target for the 12 months through February. Merck remains in first place, but its share in the $1 billion protease inhibitor market is down to 40%.
>The new drug has, overnight, transformed Agouron from a research outfit with >tiny revenue into a real drug company, with sales in the December quarter of $104 >million. On that revenue the San Diego outfit netted $5 million, or 15 cents per >share.
As far as that article on crix-belly, for a completely different interpretation:
See: "Truncal Obesitiy, "Crix-Belly" Is it what it appear to be....or something else? - By Donald Kotler, MD.
healthcg.com
In his conclusion, he states:
"It seems certain that nutritional concerns have not just gone away. There are no definitive conclusions, only hypotheses and more questions with little hard information. It is unclear if the "syndrome" is a side effect of protease inhibitors or an epi-phenomenon of combination antiretroviral therapy (as some patients with the "syndrome" are not taking protease inhibitors). These changes are not seen in all protease inhibitor-treated patients and the reported incidence rates of 5% and 64% tell us that more data are needed. Additionally, many people have only certain elements of the syndrome and there is not even consensus on exactly what the "syndrome" includes, i.e. there is no case definition."
"At present, there is no indication for discontinuing or changing antiretroviral therapy simply on the basis of the "syndrome". Medical therapy as indicated is appropriate for diabetes, hypertension, and significant hyperlipidemia. Other measures to prevent possible atherosclerotic disease, such as cessation of cigarette smoking, dietary change, low dose aspirin, aerobic exercise, omega-3 fatty acids, and others should be considered as part of a wellness program, but should not be considered therapy for the syndrome per se. Finally, there is no hard evidence, despite an increasing number of claims, that any current treatment can prevent or reverse the changes. One thing seems certain, that in the present environment, it is likely that these questions will be pursued vigorously and that the situation will become much clearer relatively soon."
>>What is the significance of it closing two days in a row at the low for the day? Probably means nothing but is frustrating.>>
IMO, many of those who "play" with this stock are not aware of the fundamentals of the company, and apparently don't care. I could go on but I won't. |
