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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (4906)	3/13/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Respond to of 18691

JTC, What % of total Japanese export production is no longer in Japan, but actually now based in one of the Asian tiger/new-tiger economies? I fear that once things stabilize in Asia, scads of cheap, high-quality stuff will come in from the other Asian countries, but the profits will actually flow back to Japan. Maybe this was the plan all along???

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (4906)	3/13/1998 2:05:00 AM
From: Yamakita	Respond to of 18691

Oh I couldn't agree more than the Japanese gov't won't deregulate like they say they will, and that they are in fact the biggest cause of the problems, and that they will continue to bumble. But the yen cannot "devalue" Joey. It can drift downward, maybe significantly so, but there will be no policy like what happened in Thailand or Korea to do so. Japan still has $13 trillion sitting around. It will continue to sell its world-class goods to plenty of people, especially as they get a lot cheaper. World demand for high-end optics, monitors of all types, cars, machine tools, robotics and other manufacturing automation equipment, and plenty else is not going away. With prices going down, demand for these things will almost certainly increase. Asia isn't falling off the earth, and Japan certainly isn't. I'm curious: Who is borrowing, and from whom, at 20%?