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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4916)	3/13/1998 7:47:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Looks like ALYD is the next vehicle for Y2K rah-rah: cbs.marketwatch.com

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4916)	3/13/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Marconi	Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Villa: I'm sorry, I have not been watching interest rates. They don't matter with short selling with the likes of ZITL and others. I prepped a quick analysis but it disappeared. Looking at Barron's M3 is up 10% y to y, M2 less, and M1 static. That is reversed from what I would have expected. The dollar is very strong. Therefore the Feds are more likely to 'help' us by abasing the money. Tightening rates would raise the dollar. I think corporate profits on the whole have apogee'd. Does not look smart to squeeze the private sector through a jump in rates. Maybe that is behind M3 being up so much year to year. Maybe try Grant's interest rate observer-I don't know his record. Rates can be predicted with great precision 3 months out, and less accurately as the time frames extend to the future. I am not sure I can answer this one. With ZITL trading, and other shorts, there is essentially no influence from interest rates on valuations--which are dominated by the underlying value dislocation far more than the relatively miniscule effect of interest rates. What's a percent or two when we are usually talking about 50 to 100% areas of return. I hope my reaction helps in some way. Best regards, mdr