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Biotech / Medical : Depotech(depo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Barels who wrote (761)	3/13/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: seminole	Respond to of 887

Bob <<<Anybody know what is next so I can take a short position?>>> Maybe you should use that PHD of yours to do your own research. Try mixing in a little science with your short positions. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. richard

To: Bob Barels who wrote (761)	3/27/1998 8:24:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 887

Am no longer investing....at least for a while. No longer have any capital for investing. (i.e. it is inadvisable to invest money that one cannot afford to lose). I thought I was _good_ at biotech investing. Prior to DEPO (including ABTI) I was ahead $180,000 (i.e. up 110%) in 1997. ABTI was not a big deal for me. A mathematical model suggested >90% chance of positive Phase III data. I was long about 300 call options. The potential upside with positive data was about 10 points, or $300,000. Instead my options became worthless and I lost $30,000. For me, on ABTI the risk/reward ratio was favorable and I would repeat an investment with those odds if I had the capital and opportunity. Unfortunately there were no options available for trading on DEPO. Got wiped out on DEPO (wiped out = lost $720,000 in one day). I am still bullish on ADVH (I realized profits of $36,000 on that stock in 1997). So, if you want to sell short what I would buy if I had the money, ADVH would be the one for you. It might especially appeal to you since I started the SI thread on ADVH. Short ADVH if you dare. Message 3790062 In sum I was right in 1997 a lot more often than I was wrong. (That is no cause for patting myself on the back--I am still broke. But it makes shorting whatever I take a long position in more risky for you) I had been systematically scaling up my investments all year long. Immediately prior to DEPO I had shorted 12,000 shares of NSTA on the day that the FDA preliminary advisory committee had approved its fentanyl oralets. I made a profit of $45,000 in about 4 days. I was foolish to scale up my investments so dramatically on one stock (DEPO). My father is in an investment club with the individual who has the largest private portfolio in Missouri (>$50 million). He has made three fortunes and gone broke twice in between. He has never taken a paycheck in his life, and is a closet philanthropist. My dad says I learned an expensive lession. My brother (MBA from Harvard) thinks: 1) I am a better than average investor 2) I should invest again in the future 3) but that there is no sure investment, and I should never go around putting all my eggs in one basket. Hopefully, in time, God will give me the wisdom to invest responsibly. Before then, I still wrestle with this unequivocal calling to give free medical care to the homeless in my community. Unfortunately for a lot of indigent people, I am no longer able to fund their care from my investing profits. I wish you well, Tom D