To: DuGen who wrote (6243 ) 3/13/1998 12:37:00 PM From: JIN CHUN Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27968
DuGen, think of it this way. The target shell is nothing but a shell, they do not affect FAMH at all. The following is from a message I sent someone else: but you should look at Brad's posts, it's better stated. . Ira stated that the post merger figures for the '97 eps would turn from .1085 to .36. That's nearly a 1 to 4, but less do to dilution, I would think from the outstanding shares of the target, or from the merger process, after all, the target needs some reimbursement and they won't give it away for nothing. Also, I do not believe that the target is doing anything at all. It may just be trading out of the small assets it has and the speculation of a reverse merger. I have been told that the company has no liabilities and a small asset base. I do not believe that price of the target's stock will be an issue. Since FAMH will remain fundamentally the same company, but the target will in effect dissolve itself for practical purposes, FAMH has a great opportunity to be fairly valued. If I have 400 share of FAMH at .50, that's $200 in equity with trailing non diluted PE of 5. If my shares then become only 100, with the exact same multiple of 5, times .36 post merger, that's $180. A ten percent loss initially, but the added benefit that the market will fairly valuate the share price and send the PE flying based on projected eps. Since the float will be reduced from 10MM shares to around 3MM, you can imagine the opportunity this gives. Simply, if FAMH makes a net of 6MM in '98, that would currently be an eps of .15/share. With only around 10MM-11MM shares, that's an eps of around .54/share. On the OTC, we get manipulated and walked down by the MM's. On the NASD, we get industry average multiples for the growth oriented company that FAMH is. Even with a PE of 10 on the OTC with the above scenario, we get 400 shares at 10*.15 or $600. On the NASD the 100 shares with a PE of 10*.54 gives $540 equity, except that we would more likely get a PE of around 30 and higher IMO. With a PE of 30 *.54 * 100 shares gives $1,620. I'm willing to take my chances, only because I do not believe the OTC is favorable for attaining a PE of 30, but the NASD sure is. Even so, it might take a year or more to do so on the OTC, but on the NASD, after the volatility goes down, it may only be a couple of weeks, if not days. Jin.