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To: A. Fineigler who wrote (14754)	3/13/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 95453

Looks highly likely that OPEC will support prices now. They're being much too serious about these meetings. they wouldn't screw w/ the mkt's mind or they know they'd never be taken seriously again. Face will be saved........... Friday March 13, 8:17 am Eastern Time FOCUS-OPEC assault on price slide needs more time (Updates with comments from OPEC Secretary General) By William Maclean LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - OPEC oil producers signalled on Friday they needed more time to heal a bitter internal dispute over production that has sent prices tumbling to nine year lows. Secretary General Rilwanu Lukman said a scheduled meeting next week of a committee of oil ministers that reviews market conditions had been postponed until March 30. ''Furthermore, the OPEC Secretariat is continuing with its assessment of the oil market to enable the market monitoring subcommittee to have a more in-depth view of the market situation, so as to make appropriate recommendations to the conference,'' the OPECNA news agency quoted Lukman as saying. Oil dealers had seen the meeting of the market monitoring committee (MMC) as the cartel's next opportunity to tackle a vast worldwide glut of crude that has put a painful squeeze on OPEC revenues. Lukman's statement notwithstanding, the delay appeared linked to domestic politics in two member countries. Kuwait's Oil Minister Issa al-Mazidi said he could not attend due to what he called unforseen circumstances. Officials say Mazidi is needed at home on unexpected government business connected with a parliamentary no confidence motion against a fellow minister. Kuwait is the only Gulf Arab state to have an elected assembly. And OPEC President and Indonesian Oil Minister Ida Bagus Sudjana is expected to be replaced as Indonesia's Mines and Energy Minister in a cabinet reshuffle to be announced on Saturday. But the underlying motive was the disarray over output policy among members of the cartel that controls 40 percent of global production, delegates said. One delegate commented: ''You can't meet when you haven't properly prepared your case.'' ''My personal recommendation is that we don't meet until the full meeting in June. That gives time for the pain from low prices to make everyone concentrate on what must be done.'' The MMC groups ministers from Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria plus Secretary General Lukman. Sudjana had also been expected to attend. The committee was due to review members' production levels and global market conditions following an $8 a barrel slide in oil prices since October. It has no mandate to set production quotas, a privilege reserved for full ministerial gatherings of the 11-country Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The next one is in June. Analysts have said a full emergency meeting before June is highly unlikely to take place as long as Venezuela and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia remain at loggerheads over the group's production policy. Mazidi said an expanded MMC meeting later in March ''would give us more time to secure wider participation for a meeting after March 26, which can be a very positive and fruitful meeting.'' But even a bigger MMC would be hard to assemble while the two heavyweights are waging their prices-versus-volume dispute in the full glare of publicity. Saudi Arabia has strongly hinted it will not support holding emergency talks as long as other OPEC members are cheating on their assigned output allocations -- a comment aimed mainly at Venezuela, the largest quota violator in volume terms. In the latest round of the dispute, an official of Venezuela's state oil company on Thursday repeated allegations that Saudi Arabia was cheating on its production allocation of 8.76 million barrels per day. Luis Urdaneta, vice-president of Petroleos de Venezuela, added that total world production was two million bpd above demand and that explained why prices had crashed. The price slump followed OPEC's last ministerial meeting in November when the group increased its output ceiling by 10 percent to 27.5 million barrels per day. Prices touched a nine-year low this week, prompting Saudi Arabia to call on OPEC's quota-busters to rein in production as a condition for any Saudi action to lift prices. But Venezuela has insisted that it will not cut a single barrel off its output. Reinforcing that message, Venezuelan President Rafael Caldera said the country was better prepared than ever to overcome the recent slump in oil prices, adding the price slump was not due to his country's increased output. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------