Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Green Tree Financial (GNT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Adam Nash who wrote (129)	3/14/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: Shane M	Respond to of 169

I bought GNT after the plummet from ~50 to 30, only to watch it fall to 19. Unfortunately, this is the stock where I had to learn my "never catch a falling knife" lesson. I learned my "knife" lesson with MON during the same time period also. Got faked out as it looked like it was basing around 20. Bought at 20 1/2 and it proceeded to head south by about 20% to around 16 before moving back up. It and GNT followed very much the same trading pattern during all of those events. Thing is, though, when stocks like these are screaming "bargain", it's so hard not to pull the trigger, despite the chart. Although I've followed investing intently for the past 6-7 years, I'm fairly new to investing in stocks using "real" money. A few things I've learned that have served me well: 1. Patience. I'm more and more willing to wait on the perfect price. Despite the lofty market valuations, there are still many securities selling at good prices in todays' market. If one that I like "takes off" before it hits my desired price that's OK, because there are others out there. I want to limit downsided exposure as much as possible, because frankly, I don't sleep as well at night when my stocks are going down. 2. Look at the chart before buying. I'm primarily a fundamental investor, and often wouldn't consider a chart of an investment until I had determined my investment decision. I have resolved to always look at a chart before buying, and if the stock is in a definite downtrend I will wait. I don't know what it is about technical analysis, but I think it has some merit when used in this "confirming" way. Hopefully this will allow me to avoid those painful drops in price. Isn't it strange how a 30% drop in stock price hurts a whole lot more than a the benefit of a 30% increase in price? I must run. thanks for your comments on GNT. FWIW, my database shows average earnings estimates for GNT of $2.50 in fiscal '98 and $2.80 in '99, but the variance on these estimates is huge. The high estimate in '98 is $3.70 and the low is $2.00. In '99 the high estimate is $3.65 and the low is $2.40. Shane