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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Moerman who wrote (17405)	3/13/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: Russian Bear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 32384

OFF TOPIC <<Russian Bear, thanks for your insight as well! Do you have a favorite biotech other than LGND? :-)>> Paul, My next favorite biotech is MGI Pharmaceuticals (MOGN.) It just received FDA approval for Salagen for the treatment of the symptoms of Sjogren's Syndrome. There is some uncertainty about the size of the Sjogren's market (many go undiagnosed,) but approximately one million U.S. sufferers appears to be the consensus estimate (let's assume MGI reaches a mere 50,000 of them, to be conservative.) This drug, incidentally, belongs to MGI, exclusively (i.e., no partner.) Salagen, already on the market for the treatment of dry mouth associated with radiation therapy for head and neck cancer, commands $1000 per patient, per year. Manufacturing costs are trivial. (When you do the math, be sure to keep in mind that MOGN's market capitalization is all of approximately $70 million.) Then there is MGI-114 (on the MGI thread, it has been likened to a "lottery ticket.") This is a highly promising cancer drug, currently completing Phase II. It is also un-partnered, as yet (although MGI has indicated that it will soon seek to sell European rights to 114, retaining U.S. rights.) If MGI-114 turns out to be a blockbuster (an unlikely, but not impossible, outcome,) MOGN will appreciate many, manyfold. If, conversely, 114 fails to gain FDA approval (as statistics suggest is likely,) MGI is still undervalued (by a factor of at least two, in my judgement) based solely on Salagen. That is the beauty of it! In the near future, Phase II results for 114 should be made available, and a European partnering deal could very well be announced. Good luck, RB