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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ploni who wrote (4958)	3/13/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: Don Westermeyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Anyone here still short ATHM? It looks like the AT&T deal will not happen due to ATHM's high stock valuation. It didn't really seem to bother the stock price too much considering how important that deal is! Might be a good short come Monday (if any i-net stock is a good short these days, LOL).

To: Ploni who wrote (4958)	3/14/1998 2:24:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 18691

CDRD from the Yahoo thread: "CDRD used to have a revenue/P&L projection on their web site, but it is no longer there. It used very conservative estimates of market share (50%). Since CDRD will be first to market, their share will be 100% at first and then will likely be well above 50% for the foreseeable future. There are 200M cars in the US currently running. They predict that the total share of cars using satellite band will be 7% a few years after introduction. taking 3.5% of 200M gives 7M customers at $10 per month - over $800M revenue per year and that is a low estimate. Company valuations by year 2005 are upwards of $8 billion. Breakeven is under 1M customers. They will achieve this in a year or so after introduction. " That's what the longs are thinking. Until it is disproven - which will take a few years - I wouldn't short CDRD unless you like short squeezes. Too bad they don't offer leap puts. That would be a great way to play CDRD. Or throw caution to the wind and go long <ggg>. Another poster says the "insiders" have a target price of $35. Too weird for me. I'd advise staying out for now.