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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Roger Hess who wrote (345)3/13/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Wayners  Respond to of 927
 
VLSI's s support and resistance levels for about a month hold time is the $17-$18 level at the lower end and $25 on the upper end. I see your strategy with VLSI. I was assuming you had a much shorter time horizon than say 4 to 8 weeks. I think the $22.50 to $25 range is totally plausible. I think its forming the base. I'd give it a solid week before its ready to break. A break up will take you to $22.50 in 4 to 6 weeks. A break down on higher than its average volume and I'd say get out. The stochastics are rock bottom low like they were in January. If you look at a 5 day stochastic, just look at the 30 day moving average of the 5 day stochastics. Its down at the 20 level just like it was in January. VLSI just hasn't shown which direction its going. Its definitely got an upside bias and its worth playing on the long side. For a 5 day stock flip, its a wait until I see a break up. 5 days is too long for me to wait while it doesn't move.

I'm always looking for stocks to short or go long on. I'm biased towards the short side because of the stock market valuations, the earnings warnings out of some of the larger cap companies and I know that earnings preannouncements will start in earnest in only another week, right after options expiration next Friday. Its good to be able to go both ways so you aren't sidelined when everything out there is in a downtrend during a prolonged correction. The period between Oct 97 and Dec 97 is too long to be waiting on the sidelines for me, so I played a lot on the short side. There's ALWAYS something to short--always something on a downtrend already. Just find those high peaks in stochastics on the dowtrend and look to make sure it isn't near a bottom in the trend; a judement call looking at a lot of stuff.

With INTC, support is supposed to be at $70. I wouldn't be a buyer above that level. Another consideration is the trend its on when it gets there. If you consider INTC a 30 day play, look at the slope of a 30 or 50 day moving average. If the slope is down, its likely to break through support at $70 and then you'll be sorry if you bought it. The last time there was a big correction in the semis, INTC was a great buy at $50 as it then tripled from there. I would definitley be a buyer at $50. That would take some patience to wait. As blasphemous and crazy as this might seem, it might end up being a better short play. Even market leaders can be good shorts, BUT ONLY IF YOU PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS ARE AND WHAT THE CURRENT TREND IS.