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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (14769)	3/13/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

GD, Well, you may get a chance to go for these companies lower, but it doesn't look to me like they're dropping much. HLX and FGII are special cases today. Otherwise, I think there is more worry that they are going to drop than signs that they are doing it. I haven't been able to find much weakness in RIG at all, so I've been nibbling at ESV and FLC. I think the balance between significant downside from here and upside should OPEC announce a power lunch favors hanging in. You may be right that we're about to fall off a cliff, but I suspect it will be a pretty small cliff -- more like a step. Of course there are those negative rumors surrounding more "Willie" testimony that might have some negative impact on that other famous driller. Have a great weekend, Baird

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (14769)	3/13/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Glen, I like it, keep up the negative sentiment. <<I think you're right.I'm sitting on the sidelines now and just looking at the activity on the drillers,it seems hopeless right now.I don't think 98 will see much of a rebound for these guys.Oil is forecasted to stay in this price range for a while and you know what that means....Remember what the ceo of Rowan said on CNBC just 2 months ago...If oil falls below 15 and stays there for 60 days then we're in trouble.....He said it and it's happening?Why play these stocks right now?I really think these stocks are about to fall off a cliff>> Read thru your post again, and think about how financial mkts work and then relate it to your stmts. We're going sideways till late April or May, PERIOD. We'll probably even retest lows on the day before we begin the uptrend. These stocks are not for the faint of heart. We'll see pops every now and then (like the GOM lease sale next week) and dips like this week. But don't be fooled either way. We're not breaking out of the trading range. Good news and bad news will just mark the tops and bottom gyrations of the trading range. Look at '96 and '97 charts, you'll see what I mean. Watch for OPEC to cut production and stabilze prices are $17 and then for them to move dramatically higher over the summer and winter, as summer is extremely hot (A/C) and driving is extra heavy (noticed all the SUV's that every car co seems to be coming out w/, those suck alot of gas) and a bitterly cold winter. These temperature flux's are historical. Next winter people will be calling for OPEC to increase production to get prices down. Mark my words. -Lucretius