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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David who wrote (2327)	3/13/1998 5:40:00 PM
From: SirAlexx	Respond to of 3506

No David, you don't need engineers to tell you the stock is going lower, you just needed me, your 'ol buddy Al. You remember me don'y you?, the one that warned the thread of impending lower prices. Unfortunately, your ego and your arrogance are doing as predicted.

To: David who wrote (2327)	3/13/1998 6:07:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

Players in the Japanese car navigation GPS chip market . . . SGS-Thomson claims a 30% share. I think they are partnered with Japan Radio Corp,, but cannot nail it down, and probably supply Alpine (for OEMs and aftermarket), Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Sharp, Casio and Toyota. Trimble's major connection, of course, is Pioneer. TRMB also supplies Xanavi/Nissan with GPS. Clarion will introduce the Auto PC in 1999 (they have to develop the voice recognition system for the Japanese language). There is probably also a trace presence through exports of VWs to Japan (a Blaupunkt connection), starting 2Q98. I would estimate Trimble's percentage share of the Japanese market to be in the low twenties -- they get to a global 30% by dominating Europe. Orbi's partner is Matsushita (Panasonic), which has a 20% aftermarket share and possibly some OEM. Rockwell has a recently announced partner in Clarion's ADDZEST car nav product. Sony also supplies GPS into this market, but does not appear to be a leader. I have not figured out who is supplying Honda or Mazda. The GPS market prices in Japan are not coming down. Instead, the vendors are adding features. Overall, a full car navigation system in Japan will go for $2000 to $3000. That may be why they are having trouble exporting in volume to Europe and the US. I'll try to post more next week.

To: David who wrote (2327)	3/13/1998 6:34:00 PM
From: Yin Shih	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

I don't think the price drop correlates to this SGS-Thomson announcement. Some points: 1) The announcement is dated 3-12 and the TRMB price drop occurred between 11 and 12 EST on 3-13 an odd time for an European announcement of the previous day to affect the market. 2) The chipset doesn't seem that extraordinary. Trimble has had the Sierra chipset since last year that is also a 2-chip solution (RF/IF asic and Signal Processor asic). Note that the Sierra includes a Motorola 68330 microprocessor core and is spec'd for -40 to +85 degrees C which is a good harsh environment temp range. The Sierra is "only" 8 channels versus the SGS-Thomson set which is good for 12, but that's normal leapfrogging. I would expect a 12 channel asic set from TRMB as a matter of course soon enough. For more details see: trimble.com 3) As someone mentioned before, TRMB traditionally issues earnings warnings about this time in the quarter. It seems more likely to me that there is some justified or unjustified anticipatory selling. Yin