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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (14972)3/13/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Michael  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
Good point, Bonnie.

I guess from other stuff I've been reading recently I got trapped into thinking that everyone including the Japanese expected/wanted the Yen to weaken further. Shows how assumptions can blind you.

But what would make the dollar go down against the Yen rather than say the DM or the Pound, and why bonds as a currency play rather than anything else. WB I guess is probably not a big player of derivatives, but that certainly does not apply to Soros.

I can see one scenario to move the currency. The Japanese sell all their US Bonds (in a very public way). That would certainly move the Yen, especially when guys playing the Yen carry trade started to cover. But why...

The strengthening Yen would exacerbate their competitive problems.
The USD BOnds would plummet.

It would also seem to be fairly short term thing. WB is not known for short term moves ???

COnfused :o{