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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason W. France who wrote (129)	3/13/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: Ally	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2578

Jason, I think you are correct in mentioning that a investment time-horizon is crucial in discussing any investment. Do check out the past postings, and you'll see that we talking about a very short time horizon here on the price weakening. All we are saying is that we are perceiving a changing business cycle for pcs, and that growth rates may slow down. The indications are already here: disk drive makers (Western, Seagate, Quantum) having problems with over capacity and low product pricing, Intel recently announced slower chip sales, then the Compaq announcement. You may view Dell as a superstar that can over come any slow down in the pc business cycle, and you may well be right.... only time will tell. You may want to trust explicitly when Dell said everything is OK, and that's fine, it's your perogative. My view is that Dell's pe ratio is way too high given the negative indications in the business environment, and while I think Dell is a great company in the long run, in the short run I see an opportunity to make some money (or lose some if I'm wrong) to sell short. There are no good guys, or bad guys. It is all fun and business. And there is no point debating with you on Dell. We can debate till the cows come home, and not change each others mind. Besides, the purpose of forums is not to win arguments, but rather to have an opportunity to render differing views, so that investors can have a balanced diet when making their personal investment decions. And I'm sure you know that no one can tell definitively what is going to happen to a stock price. The most we can do is take a view, plunk our money down, and see what happens. D.

To: Jason W. France who wrote (129)	3/15/1998 9:17:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

Jason, I'll try to respond to some of your issues if machine stays up. 1) For long term greater that 6 months investment horizon; I invest in two things: mutual funds, esp. index funds and special situation high growth areas. I have found it difficult to know company specific information before the analyst community has already briefed their clients two to four weeks before. Thus the index funds which I will stay with until I see a secular bear market starting. My special situation and high growth portfolio is less than 50 percent of my long term money and is currently devoted to two areas: 1- southeast asia as about 15 percent of my long-term portfolio 2- e-commerce type stocks going through rapid growth agin about 15 percent of portfolio As an aside, DELL was in my high growth portfolio April through August of 1997. This portfolio is selected strictly on fundamental analysis using Tech. Anal. to try to pick entry and exit points 2) Shorter term money geared to opportunistic investments of 2 to 4 weeks (although a short term investment can run for several months if trend is favorable - e.g. I held XCIT for several months). It is in this short term category that DELL now falls for me. As this company and stock transitions from high growth (200 percent per year) to mature grower (30-35 percent per year); there is likely to be some volatility. It is this volatile transition that I am now playing. These decisions are based on a combination of technical and fundamental factors. For next week I can see a pop up within my project trading range of 61-69 and then possibly retrace to about 64 end of week. Would people prefer to have this thread renamed to something else? If so send me a message and I will try to arrange with webmistress to do so, as people prefer. Sending message before machine crashes. Dave