There is some interesting work being done on the Point and Figure Charting Board concerning the Biotech sector. For the general edification of those on this thread, here are some examples:
To: duke60 (1692 )
From: P&F-Madness Wednesday, Mar 11 1998 11:01PM EST
Reply # of 1774
Sectors under 55%
This is doing things a little backwards. Should do FA first.
Listed here have RS in a column of X's and positive daily momentum.
Note: These are not buy recommendations. FA has not been checked and
many on this list are over extended. This is only a beginning list.
........................................RS/Sig..Clm..Mom...Prce/Stop/Target
Biomedics/Genetics (42.3%) - Bull Alert
AGPH Agouron Pharmaceuticals Inc.....Sell....X...+..38.06..34...46
ALKS Alkermes Incorporated...........Buy.....X...+..23.13..15.5.28
BGEN Biogen Inc......................Buy.....X...+..47.....34...52
CNTO Centocor Inc....................Sell....X...+..37.56..32...68
HGSI Human Genome Sciences Inc.......Buy.....X...+..43.97..35...63
IDPH Idec Pharmaceuticals Corp.......Sell....X...+..44.....38...?
IGEN Igen International..............Buy.....X...+..32.38..14.5.?
INHL Inhale Therapeutic Systems......Sell....X...+..29.5...24...37
LCBM Lifecore Biomedical Inc.........Sell....X...+..19.63..17...26
LTEK Life Technologies Inc...........Buy.....X...+..33.13..29...45
MAM Maxxim Medical Inc..............Buy.....X....+..26.13..17.5.33
MLNM Millenium Pharmaceuticals, Inc..Buy.....X....+..18.63..17.5.20
NXCO Neurex Corp.....................Buy.....X....+..19.22..14.5.26
SCHK Schick Technologies.............Buy.....X....+..25.56..18.5.40
Healthcare (49.5%) - Bull Confirmed
BSX Boston Scientific Corp..........Sell...X(new).+..61.33..53..73
PHSYB Pacificare Health Systems Inc ..Sell...X(new).+..71.13..56..82
RXT Renal Treatment Centers Inc.....Buy....X(new).+..40.94..29..?
WLP Wellpoint Health Networks Inc...Sell...X(new).+..61.19...?..?
PGN Paragon Health Network Inc......Buy...X(new).+...19.63..17.23
AVEI Arterial Vascular Engineer......Buy.....X....+...44.0...35..?
CVTY Coventry Corp...................Buy.....X....+..18.63...13..29
GDT Guidant Corp....................Buy.....X....+..77.5....68...?
HGR Hanger Group Inc................Buy.....X....+..16.81...10...?
CMD CareMatrix Corp.................Sell....X....+..31.63...22..57
RXT Renal Treatment enters.........Sell....X....+..40.94...29...60
To: P&F-Madness (1693 )
From: wizzards wine Thursday, Mar 12 1998 12:17PM EST
Reply # of 1774
To All: Zacks rating on Jan's list of 55
ss is strong sell, s is sell, h is hold,
b is buy and sb is strong buy
numbers below insiders and institutions are
percentages held as reported by Zacks, and
I don't know why they sometimes exceed 100%.
Ticker....Zacks......Insiders....Institutions
AGPH B @ 38.43
ALKS B 22.13
BGEN H 46.22
CNTO S 36.38
HGSI B 43.94 16.7 42.8
IDPH B 43.25 25.8 68
IGEN S 27.00 8.3 14.9
INHL H 30.13 35 43
LCBM S 19.00 .5 49
LTEK NA
MAM S 23.38 11.7 60
MLNM B 19.00 19 32
NXCO S 17.56 8.8 44
SCHK S 25.50
BSX S 58.13 35 47
PHSYB S 68.63
RXT H 13 96
WLP B 58.63 .01 58
PGN na
AVEI SB 40.00 25 37
CVTY S 17.5 1.1 72
GDT SB 73.5 .36 80
HGR B 15.00 45 67
CMD SB 29.75
RXT H 13 96
To: wizzards wine (1708 )
From: wizzards wine Thursday, Mar 12 1998 2:47PM EST
Reply # of 1774
To All: Valueline Data from Valuescreen III
on Jan's 55
If it's not listed, it was not in my data
base.
Ticker Timeliness Financial Beta P/E
AGPH 2 B+ 1.05 41.8
BGEN 2 B+ 1.35 33.4
CNTO 2 C+ 1.35 53.5
HGSI 3 B 1.00 NA
LTEK 3 B++ 0.90 21.6
NXCO 3 B 1.70 NA
BSX 3 A 1.35 30.6
WLP 3 B+ 0.90 17.5
GDT 1 B++ 1.10 40.5
To: P&F-Madness (1693 )
From: bobster Thursday, Mar 12 1998 8:45PM EST
Reply # of 1774
Hi gang,
Figured I would contribute for a change. I'll get to all the groups, but I'll bite them off in pieces. Here is a look at Jan's Biomedics/Genetics group from a quantitative point of view. I had to get many of these numbers from lots of different sources so they may not match exactly the numbers you see on whatever you use. Also, many of these companies are small and take big write-offs on both revenues and earnings. Some even do funky things like adding in tax credits to revenues. I tried to pull most of that stuff out of the numbers, but I certainly could have missed some. Many of these companies are fairly acquisitive, or have recently entered into funding agreements with larger companies. That is why some of the growth #'s are so amazing. If you find one you like in this group, you should definitely review this stuff. I'm looking at these companies from the point of view of an investor who would like to hold these for at least a little while. If you want a day trade, or weekly, or maybe even a monthly trade, most of this stuff doesn't matter. There is very little correlation between the very short term movement of a stock price with the underlying fundamentals.
Notes:
Earnings and Revenue figures are compared to the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings or EPS or Earnings per share are all the same thing.
Negative numbers in ( )
I'll do this group in two parts. Here is the first.
AGPH
Recent Earnings growth......last Q .15......prior year Q (.46)
....................................2 Q's ago .11......prior year Q (.57)
Recent revenue growth.......last Q 104.7.....prior year Q 15.1
......................................2 Q's ago 91.9.....prior year Q 11.2
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.08 to 1.17
Nearly debt free and finances look OK to at first glance.
They will pay taxes for the first time this year, IMO not a factor.
There are 8 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .39
5 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO, slight positive.
My conclusion: Revenue and earnings growth warrant more investigation. Couldn't find any negatives. Slight upward trend of earnings revisions increase slightly the likelihood that this stock could beat earnings estimates. I'd keep this one on the list.
ALKS
Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.14)......prior year Q (.23)
....................................2 Q's ago (.05)......prior year Q (.26)
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 7.8.....prior year Q 4.9
......................................2 Q's ago 8.4.....prior year Q 3.5
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.72) to (.79)
Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance.
Still losing money, no taxes.
There are 5 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.24)
2 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO neutral
My conclusion: Revenue and earnings growth warrant more investigation. I would wait until they stop losing money. Could be a great play for a speculator. Stock might go up 10X over the next couple of years, or they might go out of business. Nothing looks particularly appealing to me at this time. I would toss it.
BGEN
Recent Earnings growth......last Q .32......prior year Q .22
....................................2 Q's ago .27......prior year Q .10
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 109.0.....prior year Q 87.4
......................................2 Q's ago 100.6.....prior year Q 66.8
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.10 to 1.77
Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance.
Tax rate rising from 24% to 40%(est). Could negatively impact earnings comparisons.
There are 15 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .36
0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO slight negative
My conclusion: Revenue growth went from 50% to 25%. Earnings growth went from 170% to 45% to projection of 63%. These are all very high percentages but I don't like the overall trend downward. The projected turn around in the earnings growth is suspect because there is a slight downward trend in the analyst revisions. I would wait to see if earnings growth does turn around and for revenue growth to at least flatten out. For now, I'd toss it.
CNTO
Recent Earnings growth......last Q .04......prior year Q .04
....................................2 Q's ago .06......prior year Q (.02)
Recent revenue growth.......last Q 50.7.....prior year Q 43.8
....................................2 Q's ago 51.4.....prior year Q 39.2
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....0.22 to 0.21
Has a bit of debt and finances look a little shaky.
Tax rate is very low, this year and last, IMO not a factor.
There are 9 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.01)
1 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO, slight negative.
My conclusion: Earnings growth seems to have stopped and is getting worse. Revenue growth is slowing. I don't like it's financial position. I'd toss it.
HGSI
Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.38)......prior year Q (.50)
....................................2 Q's ago (.17)......prior year Q (.27)
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 3.0.....prior year Q 3.0
......................................2 Q's ago 6.5.....prior year Q 6.5
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(1.04) to (1.37)
Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance.
Still losing money, no taxes.
There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.41)
0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. IMO neutral
My conclusion: Nothing particularly exciting. No revenue growth and earnings are getting worse. I'd toss it.
IDPH
Recent Earnings growth........last Q .35......prior year Q .05
....................................2 Q's ago (.51)......prior year Q (.26)
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 26.1.....prior year Q 10.1
........................................2 Q's ago 6.4.....prior year Q 2.9
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.91) to 0.49
Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance.
No taxes last year, can't easily figure for this year. Maybe a negative
There are 5 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.01)
3 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO slight positive
My conclusion: Only one Q of positive comparisons, next Q might be OK also especially since earnings revisions seem to be trending up slightly. Revenue growth looks nice too. This one could be worth looking into further.
IGEN
Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.16)......prior year Q (.15)
....................................2 Q's ago (.10)......prior year Q (.11)
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 3.8.....prior year Q 4.5
......................................2 Q's ago 5.0.....prior year Q 4.4
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.74) to (???)
Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance.
Still losing money, no taxes.
There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.15)
0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO negative
My conclusion: Revenue and earnings growth has been flat. Revision momentum is down. Could be a great play for a speculator. Stock might go up 10X over the next couple of years, or they might go out of business. Can't find a reason to hold onto this one. I'd toss it.
INHL
Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.20)......prior year Q (.28)
....................................2 Q's ago (.19)......prior year Q (.20)
Recent revenue growth.......last Q 4.7.....prior year Q 2.1
......................................2 Q's ago 4.3.....prior year Q 1.8
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(0.72) to (1.05)
Nearly debt free and finances look OK to at first glance.
No earnings, no taxes, this year or last.
There are 8 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.26)
1 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO, neutral.
My conclusion: Revenue seems to be trending up nicely. Earnings are erratic and show no signs of strengthening. No real debt is unusual and kind of nice for this kind of company. This is about as borderline as it gets, but I would probably toss it out.
LCBM
Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.01)......prior year Q (.04)
....................................2 Q's ago (.07)......prior year Q (.05)
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 6.3.....prior year Q 4.7
......................................2 Q's ago 5.2.....prior year Q 3.6
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.06) to ????
Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance.
No taxes last year, can't easily figure for this year. Maybe a negative
There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.24)
0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. IMO neutral
My conclusion: Revenue growth seems OK, and earnings seem to be erratic and sort of trending up, but at a snails pace. Nothing exciting here, I'd toss it.
LTEK
Recent Earnings growth......last Q .34......prior year Q .30
....................................2 Q's ago .33......prior year Q .28
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 83.6.....prior year Q 78.7
......................................2 Q's ago 83.7.....prior year Q 77.5
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.35 to 1.50
Debt level is very low and finances look pretty good at first glance.
Tax rate steady at around 36%. No impact on anything.
There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .37
0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. Neutral
My conclusion: Revenue growth went from 8% to 6%. Earnings growth went from 18% to 13% to projection of 12%. These are all anemic #'s and are trending down. I'd toss it.
MAM
Recent Earnings growth......last Q .37......prior year Q .28
....................................2 Q's ago .37......prior year Q .36
Recent revenue growth.......last Q 128.0.....prior year Q 138.2
....................................2 Q's ago 128.7.....prior year Q 84.1
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.39 to 1.66
Has a lot of debt and finances look just barely OK.
Tax rate steady at around 36%. No impact on anything.
There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .36
0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO, slight negative.
My conclusion: Earnings growth seems weak in spite of last Q's good showing. Revenues aren't looking good and the debt level is pretty high. I'd toss it.
MLNM
Recent Earnings growth......last Q .81......prior year Q (.16)
....................................2 Q's ago (.34)......prior year Q (.03)
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 52.0.....prior year Q 9.5
......................................2 Q's ago 13.7.....prior year Q 9.6
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(0.00) to (0.26)
Has a lot of debt and finances looks OK.
Still losing money, no taxes.
There are 3 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.29)
0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. Neutral
My conclusion: Revenue growth looks good. Earnings are getting worse. Might make a good speculative play. Too much debt. I'd toss it.
NXCO
Recent Earnings growth........last Q (.42)......prior year Q (.29)
....................................2 Q's ago (.40)......prior year Q (.14)
Recent revenue growth.........last Q 1.2.....prior year Q 0.8
........................................2 Q's ago 0.4.....prior year Q 1.7
Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(1.44) to (1.32)
Debt level is very low and finances look OK at first glance.
Still losing money, no taxes.
There are 4 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.52)
1 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO slight negative
My conclusion: Everything is trending down, but company seems to be getting more analyst attention than the #'s warrant. Might be a good story here, but recent history looks poor. This should probably be looked into further.
SCHK
Recent IPO from last summer. Not much historical stuff to look at. The analysts seem to like it. Expecting 0.13 this Q vs. 0.03 pro forma a year ago. Worth looking into.
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