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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: REALYECAT who wrote (10326)3/14/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: Brian Lempel  Respond to of 13456
 
Hi REALYECAT. Welcome to the thread. It's a little scary to hear that someone is actually following my picks, but CELL is an excellent choice.

There has been a lot of bad mouthing of this company in the last couple weeks. It failed to make a move, and has been lagging the markets. It was recently revealed that management sold a lot of shares, although they say it was options related.

It was also touted as a short pick on CNBC last week, which IMO, really killed the rally (it had gone back above $20, but quickly fell to $19). However, the reasons the shorter gave were invalid.

I still have a lot of faith in the company, though. The management has proven itself by continuously beating estimates. I like the direction they are taking the company, that being towards higher margin services (logistics, packaging, inventory managment, etc.).

Also pointing in the positive direction is the company's selling of LYONS. Just a couple weeks after saying that it was their intent to improve the balance sheet, they announced the deal with Merryl Lynch to sell the LYONS. What this tells me is that banks are confident enough in CELL's business that they offered them a very low 4% interest. Also, demand for these were very strong.

This deal, IMO, would not have happened if there were many questions regarding this quarter. Business, according to handset manufacturers, is stable. New contracts kicking in last quarter will begin to be reflected in this quarter's numbers.

Also what I like about this is the large short position. I am very confident in earnings, and feel that when they beat numbers (yet again) in April, there will be a large upward pressure. Of course, I said the same thing about APM <ggggg>! But with CELL, I really do feel more confident, and there are a number of things I learned from that dog APM that I am applying here. The most important is that management has no problem pimping this company to analysts. This is reflected in the high % institutional ownership. Also, I think with the number of meetings with brokerage houses this quarter, any bad news would already be reflected in the stock price.

So I guess that sums up why I'm still bullish on CELL. Also might want to check out CREAF. That is one helluva stock!

Brian



To: REALYECAT who wrote (10326)3/14/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: WTMHouston  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 13456
 
Welcome to the thread and the game.

<<Wanted to pick CELL or ACRT, but because of the rule, I'll go
with.....>>

There is no rule that I am aware of that would have prevented you from
taking CELL or ACRT...you just can't pick them at the same open or
close as someone else in the same week week....It is possible (and has
happened) for two people to play the same stock in the same week...but
the second person playing it has to enter at a different open or close
than the first player....

Again, it has been a while, so here are all of the rules again....

Troy

One Stock - One Week Rules

1. Competition runs every week from Monday to Friday first pricing is
done on Monday at the opening.
2. Each participant can pick only one stock each week.
3. Stock buy or sell can be made on any day of the week.
4. Stocks can be shorted. No derivatives.
5. Trades after hours get priced at the open next day.
6. Trades during the trading hours get priced at the end of the day.
7. No picks valued below $5.00 is eligible.
8. If a stock is picked already, other participants CAN choose it
ONLY the next trading opportunity (not at the same time with the
original picker).
9. Winner is the highest % gainer that week.
10. In case of a tie, highest day gainer would get the first place.
11. As a courtesy, list reasons for your pick. (Not mandatory).
12. The stock (or ADR) must be traded on a US exchange.
13. The preferred (but not required) method for advising of your pick
is to list it as follows on the initial line of the post.
*** 1 Stock - 1 Week *** ABCD Long 1-1 open
*** 1 Stock - 1 Week *** ABCD Short 1-1 close
(This lets the pick be seen from the menu and makes it easier to
find again).
14. The official site for pricing picks is:
tradepbs.com
unless there is a dispute in which case time and sales data (when
available) will control.

In addition to these, for cumulative performance watch, each week
participants earn points accordingly:

1. 0-5% week gain gets 1 Pt.
2. >5% week gain gets 3 Pts.
3. >10% week gain gets 5 Pts.
4. Week % losers get -1 Pt.
5. Week champion gets an extra 3 Pts.

* At the end of the last Friday of every month the participant with
the most points collected within that month becomes the champion of
that month.