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Gold/Mining/Energy : FLC Falcon Drilling -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (60)	3/14/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Donald L. Dominicci	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 461

Diana I have spent the last 3 hours reading everything possible on the drillers and FLC. I cannot find any thing negative except the market action. I preffered RB as a deep water driller, but the analyst say the merger is good ???? Current Earnings EST's for the Mar. qtr. .42 (1st call) and .47 (Zachs). FY 98 are 2.11 and 2.18 respectively and 99 is 3.35 and 3.34. The companies in this sector seldom report +5% or -5% from the est. because of the long contracts. So I believe the estimates will be close. If I am correct we are looking @ a stock selling @ a P/E of 12 on 98 earnings, and 7.7 on 99 earnings. The 5 year growth rate is projected @ 41%. Short term I hate FLC, but when I stand back and look at it like a new investor, I say WOW this hummer looks great!!! This sector has got killed way beyond reality. These guys have firm contracts for 90% of their rigs through 98 and 99. Something I find interesting , I read IBD every day, before the merger, I always seen comments on R&B and FLC. Since the merger NOT ONE MENTION!!! Bottom line this stock is very frustrating, but if we could stop checking daily, and just put it away for 1 year, we would be happy campers. Hopefully some of you can do that, as Clint Eastwood said """Every man has to know his limitations"""" Although I know this is the right thing to do, I also know my limitations. Good Luck Don PS Your comment gain, I'm no stock maven. I'm just a simple grrl who knows almost nothing about drilling. Six months ago I thought the stock market was where they sold cattle and hogs. I'm just trying to figure this stuff out as I go along. I welcome criticism and correction. Was the best!! you do not deserve any critisim. Hang in there. We will win long term. Don

To: diana g who wrote (60)	3/15/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Respond to of 461

diana, The RB/FLC combination may cause some short-term problems, but longer term it has one very important benefit: it has improved the combined company's debt rating. This means lower borrowing costs and higher regard in the investment community. Similarly, the risks around their barge fleet are probably being over-discounted, since to date I've seen no evidence of weakness in this part of the company's business. At the point oil prices start to strengthen and the bidding for drilling rigs intensifies, this part of the business becomes much more valuable, because its marginal rate increases and quicker contract turnover will add to the company's bottom line in very dramatic fashion. Regarding NE and FLC, I think they are very similar companies in one key respect. Both are looking toward a strengthening of their business based on deepwater rigs coming into service in the near future. Any shipyard delays are likely to penalize earnings. This happened for NE in the 4Q. My view is that both companies will probably do very well for some time to come, but FLC is currently being viewed through half-empty glasses while NE is being viewed through half-full glasses. IMO that translates into a relative undervaluing of FLC. As time goes on, I think FLC has much more potential for positive surprises and for appreciation as it returns to a more normal valuation. Baird

To: diana g who wrote (60)	3/16/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 461

diana et al, FLC was recommended by two analysts interviewed for this week's Briefing.com Street Beat. Their general themes were deep drilling, international drilling and gas exposure were the places to be. The main concern was for land drillers and shallow drillers which may face weaker earnings in 2H98 if oil prices remain weak, but generally the view was that oil prices should strengthen and that we're fairly early in a long term cycle. Baird

To: diana g who wrote (60)	4/2/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 461

Re: Looks Like I'm Wrong Again!! Hi Thread, Here's a quote from me from the above post (Mar 14): "... but I feel moderately confident that FLC is not going to sink into the sea." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Thanks to Teddy for this from 'Strictly Drilling...' Message 3922867 NEWS snips from Offshore Data. "BRAZIL: R&B Falcon drillship PEREGRINE I reportedly lost its riser, drill string and BOP in about 5,100 feet waters offshore Brazil. Officials at R&B Falcon declined to comment on the incident. The drillship is under long-term contract to Petrobras in the Campos Basin's Marlin Field."