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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan Saline who wrote (13709)	3/14/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Weekend update on the Z's positions plus some ideas for next week. AAC: It looks like Arcadia is simply consolidating after making a big move from 5 13/16 to 7 13/16 over the past few weeks. The price dropped below the middle daily bollinger band last week and then closed above it. Support is at 7 1/8, resistance is at 7 3/4. I would continue to hold the stock with a target of 9. DIGI: I don't really like the chart on DSC Communications but wouldn't sell it as long as it holds 17. I don't have a lot of confidence that it is going to hold support though, based on the chart pattern, oscillators, money flow and on-balance-volume. If the stock gets below 17, there is a lot of risk that it could fall further to 14 or 15. In short, I wouldn't hold it below 17 but don't want to preempt a move below support so I'm willing to hold it for now. I'm placing a GTC stop at 16 3/4 on the 1500 shares that I'm sponsoring and recommend that we place a stop on the 2000 that Steve is sponsoring as well. Steve, please post your opinion based on what you see. It's no problem if you want to hold the 2000 that you are sponsoring. I just don't think this is a good stock to hold if it gets below support. I had a personal experience with it about a year and a half ago that I prefer not to repeat. IOM: Iomega tested its 52 week low at 8 last week and held. The chart looks good to me and the stochastic gave a buy signal on Friday although I think the stock needs to move through 8 3/4 to confirm it. The ultimate oscillator created a bullish divergence last week as it did not confirm the recent weakness in the stock. The money flow has been very good for the past three weeks, being down only three out of the past fifteen trading days. I would buy the stock with targets of 9 3/8 and 10 3/8. I'm long 4000 shares at 9 and would buy more if I didn't have so much money tied up in VLSI, which is also a favorite of mine right now. LNET: Lodgenet is frustrating me but I don't want to sell it because it has a lot of support between 10 1/4 and 10 1/2. I bought 4000 shares in November at 11 3/8 with a target of 14 and exercised poor discipline when it traded there about a week later. I normally don't hold a stock once it gets to my target, especially when I think it will have resistance at that price. I remember calling for a quote in the Atlanta airport while changing planes on a business trip and the bid was 14. I had 15 minutes to make my flight and didn't want to make a quick decision without being able to see how it was trading. Well, it's been all downhill since then. That's the breaks of having a real job ggg. I still rate the stock a buy and think it's only a matter of time before it moves back up to 14. PAUH: Paul Harris has looked very good since releasing its earnings a few weeks ago. It has resistance at 10 5/8 but I think it will move up to the 12 1/2 to 14 area once it gets through there. The stock established a long two month base in the 8 area and recently moved up on three to five times its average daily volume. This is a very bullish pattern and I rate the stock a strong buy. I'm holding 4000 shares that I bought at 10. Larry, you were looking for retail stocks. Well I like this one a lot. VLSI: I like VLSI a lot and would definitely buy it. I have posted my reasons for being so bullish on the VLSI thread but I will quickly summarize them here. The stock is very oversold and has made very little progress on the downside since preannouncing after the close on Feb 26 that fourth quarter earnings would be below estimates. The stock traded in a range of 19 1/4 to 20 1/4 on Feb 27 and then spent the last two weeks testing strong support at 18. While it did trade at an intraday low of 17 3/4 and 17 5/8 last Thursday and Friday, the stock hasn't closed below 18 and the tick volume tells me that there are no big sellers in the 18 area. The stock also held firm after Soundview downgraded it from a buy to a hold on March 6. In addition, the stock hasn't fallen further after earnings estimates were cut from 32 cents to 18 cents to 11 cents over the past two weeks. This tells me that all the bad news is already priced into the stock. The stochastic gave a buy signal on Friday but the stock needs to close over 18 1/4 to confirm it. The ultimate oscillator also created a bullish divergence last week as it has a pattern of rising lows. I feel so strongly about VLSI that I bought 11,000 shares at 19 and also picked up 15 March 17.5 calls at 11/16 on Thursday. My target is 22 and I think it is very probable that the stock will be trading closer to 20 than 17.5 when options expire next Friday. Longer term, I think the stock will test 25 again. Possible buys next week IFMX: Informix gapped above resistance at 8 on Friday and continued higher throughout the day. I would buy it with a target of 9 3/4 and a stop at 7 1/2. Sue, I think IFMX fits the criteria for a momentum stock but I wouldn't chase it if it gaps higher on Monday. APM: Applied Magnetics has support from the lower daily bollinger band near 10 1/2 and I would buy it at 10 3/4 with a target of 11 3/4 to 12. IRF: International Rectifier stock has support from the lower daily bollinger band near 12 and I would buy it at 12 1/4 with a target of 14 1/4 to 14 1/2. INTV: Intervoice has support from the lower daily bollinger band near 8 1/2 and I would buy it at 8 5/8 to 8 3/4 with a target of 10 3/8. Best of luck to everybody next week. Comments are always welcome--even if you don't agree with me. gggg Dan PS: Hey, I'm actually in the running for the contest!! What a move for PETM. Too bad I didn't pick SCOP instead of RATL for my second pick. LOL

To: Susan Saline who wrote (13709)	3/14/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Susie, didn't mean to imply that INTU was a search engine like INFO, LYCOS, YHOO and XCIT, but that INTU is considered an internet stock in that it has a lot of traffic on its web site and is starting to market it self more agressively on the internet. Now has tie in with AOL, should be a button there. Someone on the INTU thread commented that the only reason INTO didn't bolt with the other internet stock in past two weeks is that it has earnings and a product. gggg. seriously, i followed INTU all the way up and all the way down. think it is in the middle of major move here. chart looks great. Reminds me of AOL when everyone was poo-pooing it. back at 30-40, before AOL's split. CKFR i am losing interest in. don't own it personally. traded it once for me and Z and made a few buck. think the trend is ugly and the whole concept of on-line banking is in its 5th or 10th year of "potential". As for PEP splitting at 60, it's history is more of splitting near 80, so we will have to wait a little longer. bot PEP at 43 on Thursday. Larrry