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Technology Stocks : Orbital science (ORB) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dwight martin who wrote (1257)	3/15/1998 11:01:00 AM
From: Wolfgang Leopold Beirl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2394

price list of launch vehicles Dwight, thank You for the response. Actually I found meanwhile a list of competitors and prices for LEO launchers on the internet. The URL is rocketplane.com and according to this list Pegasus is the cheapest operational device with a price tag of 13M$, but the cost per payload is the highest with $14400/lb. For Taurus it is 23M$ and $7666/lb. The cheapest price per load is the chinese Long March 3 with 33M$ and $3000/lb. Sea Launch will be 77 M$ and $3500/lb. Many other alternative systems are planned to launch LEOs. My conclusion is that ORBI will not launch Teledesic. Best regards, Wolfgang

To: dwight martin who wrote (1257)	3/15/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: RP Svoboda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2394

Dwight, Thanks for the lead to Aviation Week. I was looking for an updated source of information and will try to chase down the issue. You say that Pegasus XL costs $12M. A couple of questions. . . Why the disparity in launch payload from different sources? Is it 900lbs, or 1100lbs per ORBIs web site? Also, I am not sure that $12M is such a cut and dry number. I have been trying to figure out what it costs someone to launch for a while now. Based off of my numbers, I think that $12M is retail. I could be wrong but I think that ORBI cuts the price for multiple contracts, incentives to close the deal, etc. etc. I have come up with numbers just under $10M and if you use 1100lbs payload capability, the price per lbs really changes from what is published. Here is something else to consider. A lot of published figures state generic numbers for LEO. Is there a standard definition? If you compare a sun-synch orbit to a "true" LEO the numbers change dramatically again. Finally, how do you take into consideration the efficiencies of the Pegasus? An L-1011 acting as the first stage allows the remaining stages to be extremely efficient within their flight regime. Sure, but an L-1011 is pretty expensive to maintain and will not pay off until ORBI starts launching XLs by the dozen (so to speak). BUT how much do you save by launching directly into the orbit's inclination? There is an entire range of orbits that we cannot launch directly into because of the geography of the US. Although we launch from each coast, we cannot "overfly" land during initial launch for safety reasons. How much fuel do you save (=weight saved =money saved) by launching directly into your desired orbit. No transfer orbits/huge Delta Vs = how much saved? I dont know and would really appreciate help from any technical types out there. As far as Teledesic goes, it is intended to be the "fiber" of the sky. I have always been under the impression that the sats will be huge, and as a result, will not be launched by ORBI. As always, welcome any responses. Thanks. Boda

To: dwight martin who wrote (1257)	3/19/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Wolfgang Leopold Beirl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2394

Off topic: Thiokol (TKC) I would like to diversify my investment in the space/satellite sector and I consider to buy Thiokol (TKC). They manufacture the 1st stage of ORBI's Taurus and seem to be the market leader of solid propellant launch vehicles. Their fundamentals seem to be OK - they even trade at a low P/E ratio. Their past performance is also very encouraging. However, their price is slightly drifting down right now ... What do You think about Thiokol (TKC) ? Best regards to all who might answer my question, Wolfgang